Oklahoma State vs. Texas Odds & Pick: Will Longhorns End Struggles vs. Cowboys?

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Odds & Pick: Will Longhorns End Struggles vs. Cowboys? article feature image
Credit:

Troy Taormina, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Sam Ehlinger

Oklahoma State at Texas Odds & Pick

  • Odds: Texas -6.5
  • Over/Under: 72.5
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ABC

All odds above as of Friday at 9 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Can Texas finally get over its Oklahoma State-sized hill?

The Longhorns haven’t beaten the Cowboys in four years, and have lost five straight in Austin.

Texas showed its mettle against LSU in a thriller two weeks ago, and has taken care of business against Louisiana Tech and Rice otherwise.

The Cowboys appear to be bouncing back after a down year in 2018 — Gundy’s squad ranks 18th nationally in yards per play and points per possession.

How are we betting this game? You can access Collin Wilson’s projections below and two keys to the game, and get our bets on Oklahoma State vs. Texas free in The Action Network app.

Wilson’s Model Prediction for Oklahoma State vs. Texas

Collin Wilson uses an oddsmaker-style approach to creating his own power ratings that can set a point spread between any two teams on a neutral field. 

Action EDGE members can get his projections for every Week 4 game here, and his full power ratings for all 130 teams are here.

  • Spread: Texas -2.7
  • Over/Under: 68.7

One Key for Oklahoma State

Unleash Tylan Wallace.

Texas fans and bettors know the wide receiver all too well after he torched the Longhorns for 222 yards on 10 catches in this meeting last season.

Texas has some injuries in the secondary, and didn’t fare well against Oklahoma State’s passing attack in 2018, allowing 9.4 yards per attempt.

Wallace will always get his, but breaking that extra big play could be the difference.

One Key for Texas

Finish drives.

Texas has a dynamic weapon at quarterback in Sam Ehlinger — he’s great out of the pocket and a wrecking ball in short-yardage situations. There’s no reason the Longhorns should have been held to field goals on two first-and-goal situations from the 5-yard line against LSU.

Other than those two drives, Texas has converted all its red zone opportunities into touchdowns so far this season. It will need to finish to keep pace with Oklahoma State.

Texas vs. Oklahoma State Pick

Kyle Miller has made his favorite bet of the week on Oklahoma State vs. Texas.

Action Network EDGE members can get all our staff’s favorite bets here, and you can get Kyle’s pick free in The Action Network app.

Texas is definitely the more battle-tested of the two, but I’m really, really concerned about the Longhorn defense. They rank 104th in yards per play allowed and 80th in explosive play percentage. Oklahoma State isn’t exactly the opponent you want to be facing when you’re having defensive struggles.

The Oklahoma State offense ranks 17th in yards per play, 17th in explosive play percentage, and 10th in offensive efficiency. I expect Spencer Sanders, Chuba Hubbard, and Tylan Wallace to have monster days in Austin on Saturday.

I make this game around a pick’em despite moving Texas up a few points in my ratings since the start of the season. I was happy to get the seven points but I’m still looking to play the Cowboys.

Pick: Oklahoma State +6.5 or better