MTSU vs. Troy Odds, Sharp Action, Big Bets & Model Projections (Saturday, Sept. 19)

MTSU vs. Troy Odds, Sharp Action, Big Bets & Model Projections (Saturday, Sept. 19) article feature image
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Mike Lawrie/Getty Images. Pictured: Asher O’Hara and Chaton Mobley

  • MTSU vs. Troy has emerged as one of the sneakiest sharp spots on college football's Saturday afternoon slate.
  • Danny Donahue analyzes the big money bets, signals, and model projections for today's 3:30 p.m. ET game to pull back the curtain on how sharps view this matchup.

MTSU vs. Troy Odds

Middle Tennessee State Odds -2.5 [Bet Now]
Troy Odds +2.5 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 64.5 [Bet Now]
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Odds as of Saturday at 12 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Slowly but surely, Middle Tennessee State vs. Troy has emerged as one of Saturday’s sneaky landing spots for sharp action.

Troy is now a 2.5-point favorite over the Blue Raiders — who, as you may recall, were handed a 42-0 loss by Army in their opener — but the spread wasn’t always so small. And especially in the football-betting sense, it was actually quite a bit bigger upon opening.

Our new PRO Report feature helps explain why it’s come down.

[Try PRO for FREE to track all the sharp action and expert picks hitting the Week 3 slate.]


Middle Tennessee State vs. Troy PRO Report

Big bets from sharps have taken this spread through the most important number in football betting (3), as perhaps the pros agree with our model’s projection that the wrong team is favored …

Sharp Action

Six Sports Insights Bet Signals — indicators of market movement caused specifically by sharp action — have been triggered on Middle Tennessee, the most recent of which came early this morning (just after 6 a.m. ET).

It’s important to note, though, that each of those moves, including this morning’s, came at a spread of +3 or more, which is a far more valuable number than the currently offered +2.5.

Thanks to the pros, though, that’s all that’s left.

Sharp Action edge: Middle Tennessee State

Big Money

Also pointing toward MTSU being the professional side has been the distribution of money in relation to actual bets.

The Blue Raiders have drawn just under half the tickets hitting this spread (48%), but they’ve generated 70% of the actual money. That means bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — have been taking the points.

Big Money edge: Middle Tennessee State

Model Projections

Perhaps the reason sharp bettors have been so happy to grab a field goal’s worth of points with the Raiders is they at least somewhat agree with our model’s projection that Middle Tennessee should actually be a slight favorite.

Collin Wilson’s projected spread for this game is MTSU -1.5.

Model Projections edge: Middle Tennessee State

[Bet MTSU now at PointsBet, where you can win $150 if Louisville scores once tonight.]

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