Wilson: How I’m Betting UAB-Tennessee Based on Week 10 Havoc Ratings
Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jeremy Pruitt
- Collin Wilson uses his havoc ratings each week to determine which game might be most affected by chaotic plays.
- This week, he's pinpointed a bet on UAB vs. Tennessee.
Mayhem should play a factor in the biggest game of the weekend, a neutral site clash between Georgia and Florida. The national average for defensive havoc is generally 16%, Georgia checks in at 18.3% while Florida is top 10 at 21%.
And totals for Georgia may be a bit deflated, ranking 128th in defensive plays this season, meaning the Georgia offense has done well at controlling the clock and keeping opponents on defense.
The statistic that may play the biggest role at the World’s Largest Cocktail Party is havoc allowed. The national average is 11.3%, far above Georgia’s number at 7.6%. The Bulldogs have had just four interceptions and 23 tackles for loss allowed. Those numbers are superior to Florida at 11%.
The Gators are close to the national average with a focus on 10 interceptions and 12 offensive fumbles. Havoc allowed should play a factor in Jacksonville, and Georgia has the upper hand for this top 10 game to determine the SEC East.
Our havoc ratings have long pointed out the teams that have built an identity at causing chaos on defense and demonstrating chaos prevention on offense. Only a small number of teams rank in the top 25 in both havoc and havoc allowed. Those teams include Wyoming, Oregon, Clemson, LSU and SMU.
With that out of the way, let’s dive into this week’s Havoc Ratings.
For defenses, havoc rate is total plays divided by the total number of tackles for loss, forced fumbles or passes defended divided. It can take a defense from good to great.
For offenses, havoc allowed is interceptions, tackles for loss and fumbles. Investing money in offenses that protect the ball is vital.
All odds below as of Morning morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
My handicapping always starts with the Action Network power ratings, but these havoc statistics for both offense and defense will be used to pinpoint the more volatile teams as a means of unlocking additional betting value.
College Football Week 10 Havoc Rankings
PD is passes defensed, FF is Forces Fumbles, and TFL representing Tackles for Loss. Havoc Rate is calculated per the Five Factors definition.
UAB at Tennessee
An opener of Tennessee -13 at Circa Sports sent me into a frenzy texting my runners in Vegas. Our Action Network power ratings call for this game at Tennessee -13, but I like UAB before it dipped to -9.5. Since the dip south of Tennessee -10, the number has moved back up to the dead zone of -12.
This game actually represents the biggest havoc mismatch of the weekend: UAB ranks fifth in havoc against a Tennessee offense that is 99th in havoc allowed.
This game is critical to a Tennessee team at 3-5 looking to make a bowl, but the SEC non-conference sandwich spot cannot be ignored. After four consecutive SEC games without a bye week, the Volunteers come into this UAB spot with a road trip to Kentucky on deck. The battle between Tennessee and havoc allowed has provided the most frustrating moments for head coach Jeremy Pruitt.
Jeremy Pruitt’s infamous “facemask grab” set to Jim Ross commentary. pic.twitter.com/z40mEIrEKo
— Ryan Moses (@RMoses10) October 22, 2019
Although Lynn Bowden Jr. and Kentucky present a monster challenge for the Tennessee defense, the Volunteers should game plan for a UAB defense that specializes on takeaways. The Blazers have 11 forced fumbles and rank 16th in tackles for loss.
This defense is a fumble causing machine.
Tony Fair forces the second ODU fumble of the day and Alex Wright returns it to the +33! pic.twitter.com/II9pezHzHn
— UAB Football (@UAB_FB) October 19, 2019
The Blazers have not played the schedule of Tennessee, but the statistics support UAB as one of the best defenses in the Group of Five.
UAB is No. 5 in opponent yards per play, No. 7 in opponent third down conversion rate and 13th in sack rate.
This number currently sits in a dead zone at 11.5 and 12 at most shops. Set up line watcher in Sports Insights to get notifications for a move to UAB +13.
Pick: UAB +12 (wait for steam to 13 or better) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]