Updated UCF vs. Marshall Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions: Can Herd Work Magic Again In Gasparilla Bowl?

UCF vs. Marshall Odds

• Odds: UCF -15.5
• Over/Under: 59
• Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Location: St. Petersburg, Fla.

Marshall is headed back to the Gasparilla Bowl, but this time as a big underdog to UCF.

The Knights are higher in our power ratings than they've been in either of the last two years despite a 9-3 record, and still have an explosive offense that can score on just about anyone.

Bettors are all over Marshall, though. The Herd have won and covered six straight bowl games under coach Doc Holliday.

Odds as of Sunday night and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

How Gasparilla Bowl Odds Have Shifted

Bowl season can be a strange beast when it comes to who bettors choose to support in mass.

Marshall was getting a large majority of bets (72%) as a big underdog after UAB got historically low support as a similar-sized underdog on Saturday.

Only one underdog in our Bet Labs database has ever gotten more than 70% of the tickets during a bowl game — Stanford as a 10-point dog against Oklahoma in the 2009 Sun Bowl.

While Marshall is now getting only about 60% of tickets, the support has caused the line to drop from UCF -17.5 to -15.5.

Weather Dropping Total

The total has also dropped from 61 to 59 despite 82% of bets hitting the over. Wind is expected in Florida on Monday afternoon, which is conducive to unders.

Wilson: How I'm Betting UCF-Marshall

My children have hit the preteen stage, where Santa Claus is now a fictional character. No chimney, no cookies eaten and no reindeer on the roof to get Santa to all his destinations on Christmas Eve.

As my 12-year-old barked the other day — “Dad there is no Santa Claus”.

But I kindly corrected my son: Santa exists, and his name is Doc Holliday, head coach of the Marshall football program.

Holliday is 6-0 against the spread in bowl games. We at the Action Network do not base our bets on a trend that has less than a 100 or even 1,000 iterations, but it is impossible to ignore that Marshall is always prepared with extra time.

If you think hitting the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl a second year straight is bad for the Thundering Herd, think again.

Holliday has mentioned repeatedly that recruiting Florida is the biggest part of the Marshall program. Bowl games in the Sunshine State are a platform to scoop recruits for the Herd.

After playing in two consecutive New Year's Six bowls, Central Florida may lack motivation for this 90-minute bus trip to Tampa.

The Herd will look to make this a grind of a game by dictating pace on the offensive side of the football. Marshall’s use of two and three tight end sets along with motion has confused plenty of defenses.

The Herd rank top 20 in pass explosiveness, with most chunk yards coming after the catch.

Marshall beat Florida Atlantic earlier this season, a team that runs a similar pace to Central Florida. The Herd hit eight different targets for reception in that game.

Expect a slower paced game along with the Marshall defense that is top 25 sack rate to take advantage of a disinterested Central Florida team.

Pick: Marshall +15.5