UCF vs. Tulsa Betting Odds, Picks: Fade the Heavy Line Movement?

Nov 08, 2019 12:00 PM EST
Credit:

Alonzo Adams, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Shamari Brooks

  • The line for UCF-Tulsa has seen some significant movement since opening, and Central Florida is now a 17-point favorite.
  • Collin Wilson gives his take on the game, as well as how to play it at the current number.

UCF at Tulsa Betting Odds

  • Spread: UCF -17
  • Over/Under: 69.5
  • Time: Friday, 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN 2

Odds via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


UCF at Tulsa Line Movement

For much of the week, this spread was reacting as expected to a 77% backing of Central Florida. Opening numbers varied as some of the earliest numbers were inside of 14, but by the time most books released the spread it was already past the two-touchdown point. Still, given the Knights’ popularity, oddsmakers increased the line up to 17 by Wednesday, and a few shops even went past that mark, only to be slammed back by some bigger bettors.

The spread now sits at a flat 17 as the 23% of bettors on Tulsa have accounted for 58% of actual money.

The total hasn’t seen quite as much movement, but it does feature a similar discrepancy between bets and dollars. With the 46% of bettors on the under generating 59% of money, the number has dropped a bit from 70.5 to 69.5. — Danny Donahue

Market data accurate as of Friday evening and via Sports Insights.

Collin Wilson: The Market Is Underrating Tulsa’s Defense

It doesn’t take long for money to flood the market when Central Florida is favored by multiple scores in a primetime weeknight game. Like clockwork, the market opens and steam comes in on the Knights before any underdog money shows up.

Circa Sports opened this game at UCF -12.5 on Sunday and predictably that number took off. Tulsa comes into this game on a five-game losing streak and, perhaps more importantly, are not bowl eligible since they have seven losses on the season.

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