USC vs. Washington Betting Odds & Picks: Will Trojans Stay Hot?
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Southern California Trojans quarterback Matt Fink
USC vs. Washington Betting Odds & Picks
- Spread: Washington -10
- Over/Under: 60
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds as of Tuesday at 11 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
USC toppled No. 10 Utah, 30-23, on Friday. The Trojans were forced to play third-string quarterback Matt Fink after injuries knocked out starter JT Daniels in Week 1 and Kedon Slovis during Friday’s game against the Utes.
Despite being the backup to the backup, Fink threw for 351 yards and three touchdowns. USC improved to 3-1 on the season with two wins over ranked opponents.
Its latest win was impressive enough to propel USC back into the top 25 of the AP Poll. The Trojans will try to keep the momentum going on Saturday following a victory over a top 10 conference foe.
Clay Helton’s team travels to Seattle to take on No. 17 Washington. USC opened as a 9-point underdog.
Casual bettors are likely to chase USC for a few reasons. The public tends to overvalue ranked teams and recreational gamblers have a habit of falling victim to recency bias — an overreaction to recent events, like upsetting a top 10 team.
This creates an opportunity for contrarian gamblers.
Since 2005, it has been profitable to bet against a ranked team that beat a top 10 opponent the previous week.
According to Bet Labs, bettors fading these teams have gone 137-107-2 (56.1%) against the spread (ATS). A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $2,168 following this strategy.
We can improve the win rate by targeting favorites after a statement win.
The bigger the favorite the better the win rate. Fading ranked teams favored by 14 or more points after beating a top 10 opponent has gone 74-42-2 (63.8%) ATS since 2005.
Oddsmakers tend to inflate lines for teams after defeating a top 10 opponent in anticipation of overreactions from the public. Smart bettors can profit by going against the grain and fading these teams.
Saturday Game Match
No. 17 Washington -10 vs No. 21 USC (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX)