Western Kentucky at Arkansas Odds & Pick: The Ty Storey Revenge Game
Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cheyenne O’Grady
Western Kentucky vs. Arkansas
- Spread: Arkansas -1.5
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Time: 12 p.m. ET
- TV: SEC Network
Odds as of Friday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
To the rest of the country, this game would look like an SEC team playing in a non-conference sandwich spot in November.
But there will be no overlook when Arkansas kicks at 11 a.m. locally at Razorback Stadium, as head coach Chad Morris is struggling to get victories as an SEC coach.
In Morris’ first season, the Razorbacks had two victories over Tulsa and Eastern Illinois. The count for 2019 is at two wins over Portland State and Colorado State.
Saturday, former Arkansas quarterback Ty Storey comes to town with a Western Kentucky team that’s much improved from last season, and boasts an excellent defense. Hence, the point spread being only Arkansas -1.5.
Model Pick for WKU-Arkansas
Using his power ratings, available to Action EDGE members, Collin Wilson projects the spread and total for every Week 11 game. Factors like weather, injury and specific mismatches can alter the market number.
- Spread: Arkansas -2.4
- Total: 46.4
Wilson: Offenses May Struggle
Western Kentucky comes to town with two features that should have gamblers looking at the under. Former Razorback quarterback Ty Storey is now the starter at Western Kentucky, giving defensive coordinator John Chavis plenty of ideas of how to attack the Hilltoppers offense.
Western Kentucky is outside the top 100 in rush and pass explosiveness offensively, giving the Razorbacks a chance to win a ballgame.
Western Kentucky is no slouch on defense. The Hilltoppers are 24th in total defense, 10th in opponent third down conversions and 18th in opponent red zone scoring percentage.
The biggest news in Fayetteville is the move to John Stephen Jones and KJ Jefferson atop the depth chart at quarterback. Jones, the grandson of Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, is redshirt freshman with just 24 career attempts and less than 100 yards.
While Jones looks to navigate a Western Kentucky defense that is 13th in opponent passing success rate, the Razorback fanbase is hungry for more KJ Jefferson after his Mississippi State debut.
The 12th-ranked dual threat quarterback has high expectations, but the Western Kentucky defense may give the freshman problems. The Hilltoppers rank seventh in opponent rush explosiveness to compliment an opponent pass completion rank of 26th.
Our Action Network total projection has this game around 46 while the number continues to steam into the low 50s. Between Arkansas’ familiarity with quarterback Ty Storey and the Razorbacks going two freshman under center, points may come at a premium.
Toss in Western Kentucky ranking top 30 in opponent red zone scoring to Arkansas 120th in red zone scoring percentage, and we have a formula for taking an under ticket to the window.
Pick: Under 52.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]