2018 NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes Favored Over Drew Brees

2018 NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes Favored Over Drew Brees article feature image

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.

  • The 8th Annual NFL Honors ceremony takes place tonight (9 p.m. ET, CBS) at which the 2018 NFL MVP will be named.
  • The most recent betting odds posted before Week 17 suggest Patrick Mahomes will be going home with the hardware.
  • Mahomes was -230 before his Week 17 win, and has since been named First Team All-Pro.

The NFL Honors show takes place tonight at 9 p.m. ET, meaning we’ll soon know the winners of this season’s awards,

All season, we tracked MVP odds every week. It may amaze some folks how much MVP odds can swing based on just one game.

Mahomes had started just one game in his career before the season, and was listed between 50-1 and 66-1 during the summer. He was a fairly trendy choice though, and his odds reached 33-1 before Week 1.

After a hot start to the season, he moved to +300 before the end of September.

By early November, he became an odds-on favorite, but that’s when Drew Brees’ stock began to rise. Mahomes and the Chiefs stumbled a bit, while Brees and the Saints took out the Rams and became the Super Bowl favorites.

When the final odds were posted before Week 17, the two QBs were the only players left with shorter than 25-1 odds, with Mahomes favored at -230. The next closest player listed was Philip Rivers at +2500.

The Week 17 action could have only hurt Mahomes’ odds, as he had to beat the Raiders to ensure the top seed in the AFC. Meanwhile, Brees sat on the sideline, as the Saints had nothing to play for.

Mahomes threw for two more touchdowns that day to reach 50 on the season en route to a 35-3 win.

Shortly after the end of the regular season, Mahomes was named First Team All-Pro, getting 45 of 50 votes — further suggesting the MVP is headed his way.

Here’s each of their resumes:

Patrick Mahomes: 12-4 record, #1 conference seed, 5,097 passing yards (2nd), 50 touchdowns (1st), 12 interceptions (T-9 most), 113.8 rating (2nd), 66.0% completions (16th), 8.79 yards/attempt (2nd)

Drew Brees: 13-3 record (13-2 in his starts), #1 conference seed, 3,992 yards (13th), 32 touchdowns (T-6), 5 interceptions (T-33 most), 115.7 rating (1st), 74.4% completions (1st), 8.16 yards/attempt (7th)