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The Action Network’s 2018 NFL Betting Power Rankings

Dec 04, 2018 12:00 PM EST
  • The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner offers his proprietary NFL power ratings, which are made from a betting perspective. These will be updated throughout the 2018 season.
  • By subtracting the ratings for each team and adjusting for home-field advantage, bettors can use NFL power ratings to determine Koerner's point spreads for each game.

The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings were created by Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner. These ratings mirror those used by Vegas oddsmakers and project NFL point spreads each week.

These were updated on Tuesday, December 4.

How To Use These NFL Power Rankings

To create a point spread, subtract a team’s NFL rating from their opponent’s rating and adjust for home-field advantage.

Home-field advantage can be worth anywhere from two points for bad teams, such as the Cleveland Browns, to three points for teams such as the Green Bay Packers.

Example: Before the 2018 regular season kicks off, the New England Patriots have an NFL rating of 5.6. In Week 1, the Patriots play the Houston Texans (1.6 rating). The Patriots’ home field is worth 2.5 points.


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Thus, the true Texans-Patriots Week 1 spread is 6.5 points — ((NE rating – HOU rating) + NE home field) — according to our power ratings.

Differences In Point Spreads

Our NFL power ratings are a starting point for creating a point spread, although lines can vary from the betting market. Each bookmaker is unique and weighs public perception and home-field advantage differently.

Credit:

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady (12) and Rob Gronkowski (87)

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