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Super Bowl 53 Futures: Texans, Giants Among Biggest Fallers After Week 1

  • The Patriots' game spit out the biggest riser and faller of the week, as New England had the biggest improvement in implied odds and Houston had the biggest drop-off.
  • The Bucs' surprise performance in New Orleans helped them make a huge jump from 300-1 to 50-1, leapfrogging more than 10 teams since the preseason.
  • Much like Deshaun Watson's performance did for Houston, Jimmy Garoppolo's poor play led to the 49ers falling the second most of any team this week.

We have one week in the books, folks. Just like that, 6.25% of the 2018 regular season is over. They grow up so fast …

With that said, every team has made its first impression on both bettors and oddsmakers, and Super Bowl futures have been adjusted. You know what they say, you only get one chance to make a first impression.

Perhaps you might think that some of these are overreactions or even underreactions. The former could result in some betting value, while you can’t really do much with the latter.

Here are the updated odds from the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. You can track any Super Bowl or division future bets of your own through this page and on the app.

Risers

New England Patriots (+600 to +500)

The rich get richer. Even though the move from +600 to +500 isn’t that big to the naked eye, it represents the largest increase in implied probabilities of the week at +2.38%.

Boy, was I a dumb-dumb to doubt them. Moreover, I was an especially big dumb-dumb to take the Texans at +6.5.

However, I believe this move wasn’t about how the Patriots performed, but more about how bad the Texans and Steelers looked in Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+30000 to +5000) 

Coming in second place is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the biggest surprise of the week. Ryan Fitzpatrick decided to have himself a day as a 10-point pooch in the Superdome, and as a result, the oddsmakers have given the Bucs a bit of respect.

They jumped from tied for the worst odds at +30000 to T-19 odds at +5000, equating to a +1.63% move in implied probability.

Washington Redskins (+10000 to +4000)

Following an easy 24-6 win against the Cardinals, the Redskins are next on the risers list. With the Giants and Cowboys losing, the Redskins have an early leg up in the division.

Their move from +10000 to +4000 corresponds with a +1.45% increase in implied odds.


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Fallers

Houston Texans (+1200 to +2000)

The Texans ended up losing to the Patriots by only a touchdown, but they did not look good if you actually watched the game. This especially goes for their young QB Deshaun Watson, who was clearly struggling in his first game back from injury.

Texans fans and futures bettors better hope that was just a bit of rust because oddsmakers aren’t so sure. Houston’s fall from +1200 to +2000 equates to a -2.93% drop in implied odds, more than double that of the next worst team.

San Francisco 49ers and New York Giants (+3000 to +5000)

The 49ers are in a boat similar to that of the Texans, as their 24-16 loss on the road to a very good Vikings team is not that alarming, but Jimmy Garoppolo’s play was. He threw three picks and completed fewer than half of his passes.

Anyone who was hoping San Fran could take down the NFC West couldn’t have been pleased watching the Rams blow out the Raiders. At -1.27%, the Niners’ drop isn’t that bad, but it’s still enough to take the second-worst spot.

Meanwhile, the Giants made a couple of poor decisions that helped them lose their opener to the Jags — whose odds also surprisingly dropped. I guess that game was apparently ugly enough that both teams’ odds deserved to drop.

Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders (+4000 to +8000)

The oddsmakers at the Westgate couldn’t decide who looked worse — the Lions or the Raiders. Personally, I would say the Lions.

In their head coach’s first game at the helm, they were shellacked at home by a rookie QB leading a team with low expectations. All bad things.

Meanwhile, the Raiders proved that they still can’t hang with the big boys. Both dropped from +4000 to +8000, a -1.21% decrease in implied odds.

Credit:

Troy Taormina, USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: DeShaun Watson

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money
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