Freedman: The NFL Draft Props I’m Betting for Day 2
Credit: Brian Spurlock, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Byron Murphy
- Day 1 of the 2019 NFL draft is over.
- Day 2 kicks off tonight at 7 p.m. ET.
- Matthew Freedman breaks down the NFL draft props he's betting for Day 2.
Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
Day 1 of the 2019 NFL draft is over. Two days remain.
- Friday, 7 p.m. ET: Rounds 2-3
- Saturday, noon ET: Rounds 4-7
Day 1 went well for us. Based on the draft props I’ve highlighted since January, I am 51-21-0 (+19.6) for the NFL draft.
But now is no time to celebrate: Day 2 props are available in the market. Let’s crush.
Here are the Day 2 bets I’m making.
NOTE: I might update this article as more props are released and news breaks.
2019 NFL Draft, Day 2: Player Selected at Pick No. 33
- Defensive Player: -200
- Offensive Player: +150
There are two Round 1-caliber corners available at the top of the Day 2 board in Byron Murphy and Greedy Williams, and Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen are acting as if it’s pretty much a done deal that Murphy will be drafted near or at the very top of Round 2.
Washington CB Byron Murphy is the heavy favorite to go at the opening pick of the second round if Arizona holds on to the pick tonight. https://t.co/jCKROfW3Sf
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 26, 2019
Schefty and Mort tend to be cautious in their phrasing, so it’s significant that both of them are so strong here in talking about Murphy.
I think there’s a pretty good chance he’s going at No. 33 to the Arizona Cardinals. But I wouldn’t bet this any lower than -200. Reporters can be wrong, and another team could always trade up for the pick.
The Pick: Defensive Player (-200)
2019 NFL Draft, Day 2: First Cornerback Drafted
- Greedy Williams: -115
- Byron Murphy: +100
- Lonnie Johnson: +500
- Rock Ya-Sin: +700
I thought Murphy would be drafted before Williams in Round 1, so I’m doubling down for Round 2, especially in light of the reporting by Schefter and Mortensen.
But Murphy is more of a zone corner. If a team wants a man corner, then Rock Ya-Sin might be an option. Several respected draftniks had him slated above both Williams and Murphy in their Round 1 mocks.
Why not Greedy? Bob McGinn has reported that some teams are down on him. One scout said that his name should be “Grabby”:
He grabs every play. He’s 6-foot, long and can run. He ain’t tough and he’s weak as (bleep).
If a team wants a press-man corner, it might go with Ya-Sin over Williams.
I’d bet on Murphy down to -150 and Ya-Sin down to +550.
The Picks: Murphy +100 (1.0 unit), Ya-Sin +700 (0.2 units)
2019 NFL Draft, Day 2: Last Player Drafted from the Green Room
- D.K. Metcalf: +175 (DraftKings)
- Cody Ford: +340 (FanDuel)
- Greedy Williams: +340 (FanDuel)
- Jawaan Taylor: +700 (PointsBet)
- Drew Lock: +800 (DraftKings)
This prop is available at three sportsbooks: DraftKings, FanDuel and PointsBet. For each player, I’ve identified the book with the most generous odds.
There were 22 players who attended the draft yesterday, and five of them are still on the board entering Day 2. That’s an embarrassingly high number and indicative of how random Round 1 really was: Not even the NFL could anticipate which guys would be selected in the top 32.
The two guys who catch my eye are offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor and quarterback Drew Lock.
I expect D.K. Metcalf, Cody Ford and Greedy Williams all to be drafted in the top 50. Maybe even the top 40. There’s nothing wrong with them as prospects that hasn’t already been factored into their evaluations.
But Taylor and Lock are different.
Taylor was widely mocked to the Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 7 as the first offensive lineman off the board.
He’s a three-year SEC starter and widely regarded as the best run blocker in the class. But there are reportedly medical concerns with his knee.
RE: Jawaan Taylor, I’m told clubs had an issue with a knee. A risk for first but value pick in the second
— Greg Gabriel (@greggabe) April 26, 2019
I still expect Taylor to be selected in Round 2, but you never know. In 2015, running back Jay Ajayi had the profile of a Day 2 pick, but he fell to Round 5 because of concerns about his knee.
Metcalf should come off the board once the run on wide receivers starts, Greedy is likely to be one of the next corners selected and some teams might prefer Ford over Taylor, regardless of the injury concerns.
Taylor seems like a solid bet to be the last guy drafted.
And so does Lock.
Even just a couple of weeks ago, Lock was getting serious hype as a potential top-10 pick.
But now everything has changed. Almost every team has passed on him — and three of the teams that might have been interested in him yesterday don’t need him today because they just drafted quarterbacks Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones and Dwayne Haskins.
It’s possible that he could go off the board as early as No. 35 to the Oakland Raiders. Or a team could trade up for him.
But it’s not uncommon for quarterback prospects outside of the top tier to fall further than expected — and the NFL indicated yesterday that Lock is not a top prospect.
Remember Matt Barkley in 2013? He was considered one of the top quarterbacks in the class. He had some Round 1 hype, and no one thought he would fall past Round 2 … but he was ultimately selected in Round 4.
It’s possible that the NFL simply doesn’t like Lock as much as we thought they would, and that makes some sense.
As a junior, he was interested in declaring early, but the NFL Draft Advisory Board gave Lock a “return to school” grade. And then as a senior, he played worse than he did as a junior.
If the NFL told him it didn’t want him after his junior year, I don’t know why it would want him after his senior season.
There’s a non-zero chance that Lock falls into Round 3.
I’d bet on Taylor down to +600 and Lock down to +650.
The Picks: Taylor +700, Lock +800
2019 NFL Draft, Day 2: Drew Lock Draft Position
- Over 35.5: -120
- Under 35.5: -120
At one sportsbook this line is available at 40.5 with -150 juice on the over, so I’m taking the over here pretty easily.
It’s possible that West Virginia quarterback Will Grier could go off the board before Lock.
I’d bet the over to -150.
The Pick: Over 35.5 (-120)
2019 NFL Draft, Day 2: First Wide Receiver Drafted
- D.K. Metcalf: -110
- A.J. Brown: +120
- Deebo Samuel: +500
- Parris Campbell: +500
Parris Campbell was mocked in Round 1 by a couple noted draftniks, and he checks enough of the boxes to make me think that he could be the next wide receiver drafted.
Unlike Metcalf, Campbell actually produced in college. In his final season, he had 90 receptions for 1,063 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Unlike A.J. Brown, Campbell has elite speed: At the combine he blazed a position-best 4.31-second 40-yard dash.
Like Samuel, Campbell is a versatile producer: He had 23 rushes for 210 yards and two touchdowns across his career, and he averaged 30.4 yards per kick return. But unlike Samuel, Campbell didn’t deal with constant injury issues in college.
Metcalf and Brown are likely to come off the board before Campbell, but I still think he provides value and would bet him down to +400.
The Pick: Campbell (+500).
2019 NFL Draft, Day 2: First Running Back Drafted
- David Montgomery: +160 (PointsBet)
- Miles Sanders: +175
- Darrell Henderson: +550 (PointsBet)
- Devin Singletary: +600 (DraftKings)
- Damien Harris: +1000
- Justice Hill: +1200 (PointsBet)
- Bryce Love: +4000 (DraftKings)
- Rodney Anderson: +5000 (DraftKings)
- Devine Ozigbo: +5000 (DraftKings)
- Ryquell Armstead: +6600 (DraftKings)
- Trayveon Williams: +6600 (DraftKings)
- Benny Snell Jr.: +7000 (PointsBet)
- Alex Barnes: +8000
- Elijah Holyfield: +8000 (PointsBet)
- Karan Higdon: +10000 (DraftKings)
- Alexander Mattison: +10000 (DraftKings)
- Dexter Williams: +10000 (DraftKings)
David Montgomery and Miles Sanders deserve to be the favorites here, but this running back class is so wide open that I’m going to take some shots.
Darrell Henderson led all backs this year with 71.6 expected points added. I’d bet him down to +500.
Damien Harris led all Alabama backs over the past three years with 1,000-plus scrimmage yards each season. I’d bet him down to +800.
Rodney Anderson might have been the No. 1 back in the class if healthy, and he had 1,442 yards and 18 touchdowns from scrimmage for Oklahoma in his one full collegiate season. I’d bet him down to +4500.
Trayveon Williams led the Texas A&M backfield for each of his three seasons on campus, and in 2018 he flashed with 2,038 total yards and 19 touchdowns. I’d bet him down to +6000.
I’m putting 0.3 units on Henderson and Harris and 0.2 units on Anderson and Williams
The Picks: Henderson (+550), Harris (+1000), Anderson (+5000), Williams (+6600)
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