2019 NFL Draft: Bet Against the Georgia Bulldogs in Round 1
Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Deandre Baker
- The 2019 NFL Draft begins on April 25 and will be held in Nashville, TN.
- Matthew Freedman breaks down the prop for how many Georgia players will be selected in Round 1.
Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
Day 1 of the 2019 NFL draft is finally here, and I’m still putting down as much action as I can on a variety of props.
Here’s the seven-round schedule.
- Thursday, 8 p.m. ET: Round 1
- Friday, 7 p.m. ET: Rounds 2-3
- Saturday, noon ET: Rounds 4-7
In this piece, I break down the prop for how many Georgia Bulldogs will be drafted on Day 1.
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2019 NFL Draft: How Many Georgia Bulldogs Will Be Drafted in Round 1?
- Over 1.5: +450
- Under 1.5: -700
I love the under. It’s a lot of juice to lay, but there’s a world of value on this bet.
The Bulldogs have only one player with a real chance to be drafted in Round 1: Cornerback Deandre Baker. And there’s no denying that he’s good.
A first-team All-American and the Thorpe Award winner as the nation’s best defensive back, Baker is versatile enough to play in man and zone coverages, and he held quarterbacks to just a 40.2 passer rating last year (per Pro Football Focus).
Baker didn’t flash great athleticism at the combine, but scouts came away impressed with his on-field workout, and he was dominant against SEC competition in his two final seasons, putting up a PFF coverage grade of at least 90.0 in both years. For his two final college seasons, Baker allowed zero touchdowns in his coverage.
I have him going to the Los Angeles Rams at No. 31 in my final mock draft.
But at No. 31, he’s almost falling out of Round 1, and in a number of mocks by some very respected draftniks, he falls outside of the top 32.
Here are just a few of the people who don’t have him going in Round 1.
Baker was invited to the draft, and he’s attending, so presumably the event organizers and his agent expect him to be drafted in Round 1.
— NFL (@NFL) April 9, 2019
But it’s not unheard of for a draft attendee to fall out of Day 1: It happened just last year to running back Derrius Guice.
At DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbooks, you can actually bet on who will be the last player selected from the green room, where the draft attendees wait to hear their names called.
At DraftKings, Baker is the lone favorite at +250. At FanDuel, he’s tied for first with running back Josh Jacobs at +300. The market has determined that of everyone attending the combine, Baker looks like the guy who will be drafted last — and that easily could be on Day 2.
And that’s just one guy — and TWO Bulldogs need to be drafted for the under not to hit, and Georgia simply does not have the quality of prospects needed to land two guys in Round 1.
Entering the combine, running back Elijah Holyfield had a little bit of hype, but then he destroyed his draft stock with a 4.78-second 40-yard dash.
Wide receivers Riley Ridley and Mecole Hardman might be drafted on Day 2, but this is a deep receiver class: As many as 10 wide receivers might be drafted before either of those guys is selected.
At -700, there’s an 87.5% implied probability that fewer than two Bulldogs will be selected on Day 1. The true odds, though, I think are closer to 95%. Probably 98%.
I’d bet the under down to -1500.
The Pick: Under 1.5 (-700)
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