2019 NFL Draft: How Many QBs, RBs & WRs Will Be Selected in Round 1
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured (left to right): Dwayne Haskins, Josh Jacobs, D. K. Metcalf.
- The 2019 NFL Draft begins on April 25 and will be held in Nashville, TN.
- Matthew Freedman breaks down how many quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers will be selected in Round 1.
For the first time ever, the 2019 NFL draft will be held in Nashville.
Here’s the schedule for the seven rounds.
- Thursday, April 25: Round 1
- Friday, April 26: Rounds 2-3
- Saturday, April 27: Rounds 4-7
With the combine completed, the composition of the draft class is starting to take shape, and people are starting to wonder how many quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers will be selected in Round 1.
Here are the Day 1 positional props in the market as well as my analysis.
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2019 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks Selected in Round 1
- Over 3.5: -175
- Under 3.5: +130
In my pre-combine mock draft, I had Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins slated as top-six picks, but they were the only quarterbacks with first-round grades.
The hype for Drew Lock has steadily grown this offseason, and he reportedly looked at the combine in his throwing drills, so I could see him going on Day 1. But after Lock no quarterback has distinguished himself as a legitimate candidate for a premium pick.
Of the remaining options, Daniel Jones and Will Grier are the two quarterbacks likeliest to go in Round 1. But Jones massively underwhelmed in college with his 6.2 adjusted yards per attempt. And Grier comes with concerns about his mechanics and the extent to which his production was inflated by the West Virginia offense.
I think this line should be closer to 2.5 than 3.5, so I like the under a lot and would bet it all the way to -200.
The Pick: Under 3.5 (+130)
2019 NFL Draft: Running Backs Selected in Round 1
- Over 1.5: +270
- Under 1.5: -400
The running backs collectively disappointed at the combine and look like a rather unathletic group.
Josh Jacobs is the only back I’ve seen mocked in Round 1, and while that’s probably where he’ll go, I’m not convinced he actually belongs there. And after him, there’s no one with any Day 1 hype whatsoever.
If last year Bryce Love had repeated his 2017 campaign and not torn his ACL in his final game, he might have had a shot at Round 1. Similarly, if Rodney Anderson hadn’t torn his ACL in just his second 2018 game, he might have been a first-rounder. But both players are now one year removed from their best seasons, have injury concerns and won’t work out before the draft.
At -400 odds, there’s an 80% implied probability that fewer than two backs will be drafted in Round 1, but I’d put the true odds closer to 95%. Maybe even 98%.
I’d bet the under all the way to -1000.
The Pick: Under 1.5 (-400)
2019 NFL Draft: Wide Receivers Selected in Round 1
- Over 3.5: -140
- Under 3.5: +100
Hammer. The. Over.
As many as six wide receivers could be drafted in Round 1.
Ole Miss teammates D. K. Metcalf and A.J. Brown were both big winners at the combine. They should be locked-in first-rounders.
N’Keal Harry also impressed at the combine, showing speed most evaluators didn’t think he possessed. He was a likely Day 1 selection before the combine, so I still like his chances of going then.
Speedsters Parris Campbell and Marquise Brown both have significant hype: At least one of them seems likely to be a first-rounder.
And then Kelvin Harmon and Hakeem Butler both exhibited significant athleticism at the combine for players who weigh more than 220 pounds. In a year with less talent at the position, both of them could be first-rounders, and one of them still might sneak into Day 1.
Over the past half decade, an average of four wide receivers per year have been first-rounders, and this class is notably strong at the position.
If fewer than four wide receivers are selected in Round 1, years from now the 2019 draft might be remembered for all the value it provided in Round 2.
I’d bet the over to -250.
The Pick: Over 3.5 (-140)