Freedman: How I’m Betting the Top-10 Picks in the 2019 NFL Draft

Apr 25, 2019 08:00 PM EDT
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kyler Murray, Nick Bosa

  • The 2019 NFL Draft begins on April 25 and will be held in Nashville, TN.
  • Matthew Freedman breaks down the 10 picks at the top of the draft and how he's betting them.

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

The 2019 NFL Draft is rapidly approaching, and for the first time ever it will be held in Nashville, TN.

Here’s the seven-round schedule.

  • Thursday, April 25: Round 1
  • Friday, April 26: Rounds 2-3
  • Saturday, April 27: Rounds 4-7

In this piece, I outline at how I’m approaching the top-10 picks in the draft and the bets I’m making as a result.

The Action Network NFL Podcast: Mock Draft & Player Props

Listen to the most recent episode of The Action Network NFL Podcast to hear Ian Hartitz and me discuss the top-10 picks as well as the bets highlighted in this piece.

Pick No. 1: Arizona Cardinals

I’m very much expecting Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray to go No. 1 overall. We have been bullish on him for months.

I’m not about to back off of him now.

ESPN Draft Analyst Mel Kiper reportedly gives Murray a 99.9% chance to go No. 1 overall.

Is Kiper perhaps a little too confident in his projection? Maybe — but Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury has been recruiting Murray since he was a sophomore in high school. They reportedly have a very tight connection, and Murray’s style of play makes him a perfect fit for Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense.

It’s never fun to lay lots of juice, but that’s where the value is with Murray.

My Bets for Kyler Murray

  • No. 1 overall pick: Yes -500. I’d bet this to -800. UPDATE: I’ve found this at -350. I am doubling down and betting this as heavily as I can at that number.
  • Top-two pick: Yes -1000. I wouldn’t bet beyond this.
  • First quarterback drafted: Yes -1000. I’d bet this to -1500.
  • Drafting Team: Cardinals -350. I’d bet this to -600.
  • Start in Week 1: Yes +140. I’d bet this to -150.

Pick No. 2: San Francisco 49ers

In every recent reputable mock I’ve surveyed, Ohio State edge defender Nick Bosa is slotted to the 49ers. Many analysts consider him the No. 1 overall player in the class, and he makes a lot of sense with the 49ers.

My Bets for Nick Bosa

  • Draft position 2.5: Under -357. I’d bet this to -600.
  • No. 2 overall pick: Yes -260. I’d bet this to -500.
  • Drafting Team: 49ers -230. I’d bet this to -350.
  • First defensive lineman drafted: Yes -280. I’d bet this to -450.

Pick No. 3: New York Jets