Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baker Mayfield
- Chris Raybon breaks down why bettors will generally find the best value on win-total overs early in the offseason.
- He also offers his four favorite overs heading into the 2019 NFL Draft, with fantasy analysis for each team.
Whether we’re talking game totals, props or win totals, overs are overrated.
Books get a lot more action on overs than unders, causing inflated lines that eat into the expected value of over bets like a parasite. For that reason, the best time to bet on overs is usually early on, before books have taken lopsided action and are forced to raise increase their lines.
So while I’m not a big fan of betting overs on win totals, the best time to do so is now.
The majority of win totals won’t change much, but there will be a spike in action as a reaction to the draft, and any lines that are off will quickly be adjusted. Since the difference between a +EV or -EV win-total bet can be as small as 0.5 wins or a few cents of juice on the moneyline, I want to ensure I get the best value if I’m tying up money until the season is over.
Here are four win totals I think are good bets now, but could increase after the draft, potentially eroding much of their value. For those interested, I also added a fantasy spin for each team.
Cleveland Browns Over 9 Wins
Even when the market kinda maybe sees a seismic shift coming, it tends to be overly conservative: Heading into 2017, the Rams closed with a win total of six after winning four games in Jeff Fisher’s last season, and the Bears closed with a win total of 7.5 heading into 2018 after winning five games in the final year of John Fox.
Now the Browns — having gone a 7-8-1 under a half-season of Hue Jackson (2-5-1) then Freddie Kitchens (5-3) — are being given the same conservative two-win bump.