Koerner’s NFL Win Total Projections: Buy, Sell Grades for All 32 NFL Teams

Credit:

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cam Newton

Sep 03, 2019, 08:30 AM EDT
  • Sean Koerner built a model to pinpoint the teams being overrated and underrated by the market.
  • He analyzes each team's win total below and picks out the best way to buy or fade the teams offering betting value.

There are plenty of NFL win total pieces out there that point out specific players gained and lost as a means of finding betting value, but I wanted to go much deeper as the 2019 season approaches. So I created an NFL Buy/Sell Rating Model to spot the teams that market is generally overrating and underrating.

The model takes five key metrics into account from last season, all of which influence the public perception of a team but can be more luck-driven than anything to do with skill:

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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