Freedman: How I’m Betting the 2020 NFL QB Free Agency Market
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady
With the NFL Players Association approving the new collective bargaining agreement on Sunday, the league year and “legal tampering” period will kick off Monday.
Under the new CBA, teams can tag only one player in 2020, which might impact the way they approach their pending free agents, many of whom happen to be quarterbacks.
Even though football is months away and the coronavirus pandemic has shut down every sports league that would otherwise be active right now, we can still bet on the 2020 landing spot for every major quarterback expected to be available via free agency or trade in the coming weeks and months.
And I’m looking for action.
To be clear: I’m betting these props for entertainment, not as investments, because I doubt there’s much value in the market at this late stage in the process, and I have no real way of handicapping the odds of any particular outcome.
Like everyone else, I’m just making pseudo-educated guesses. But I’m still putting some money behind my guesses, so that probably means something.
Here’s how I’m betting the 2020 NFL quarterback free agency market.
NFL Free Agency Odds & Picks
Tom Brady’s Week 1 Team
- New England Patriots: -200
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +360
- San Francisco 49ers: +600
- Los Angeles Chargers: +650
- Las Vegas Raiders: +900
- Miami Dolphins: +1500
- No Team/Retired: +2900
- Tennessee Titans: +3000
- Dallas Cowboys: +3400
- Indianapolis Colts: +4000
- New York Giants: +4000
- Chicago Bears: +5000
- Carolina Panthers: +9500
Over the past few weeks, there has been a flurry of reports regarding Brady and his future.
For months, it had seemed like a fait accompli that Brady would return to the Patriots for what would be an NFL-record 21st season with one franchise. At one point, Brady’s odds to return to the Pats were in excess of -500 (bet $500 to win $100).
But then on Feb. 27, ESPN’s Jeff Darlington said this: “I’m now at the point where I would be stunned if Tom Brady went back to New England.”
Since then, Brady has been linked to almost every team with an obvious opening at quarterback.
Within hours of Darlington’s report, the Patriots dropped to -105 at one sportsbook, and that’s where I bet them.
I think the Patriots are the likeliest team to sign Brady.