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2021 NFL Draft Betting: Trey Lance Odds Plummet After Second Pro Day

2021 NFL Draft Betting: Trey Lance Odds Plummet After Second Pro Day article feature image

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA – AUGUST 31: Quarterback Trey Lance #5 of the North Dakota State Bison runs against the Butler Bulldogs during their game at Target Field on August 31, 2019 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Sam Wasson/Getty Images)

The Trey Lance market is crashing.

The North Dakota State product — who was the co-favorite at one point to be selected No. 3 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft — has now dropped to a distant third behind Ohio State’s Justin Fields and Alabama’s Mac Jones.

The pick is currently held by the 49ers after trading up with the Miami Dolphins on March 26.

Lance’s odds decreased from +175 to +250 in a matter of hours on Monday — a 36.36% to 28.57% change in implied probability. His odds further slid overnight to +400 on Tuesday morning — a 20% implied probability with Fields and Jones tied as betting favorites at +100 on DraftKings Sportsbook.

QB Before After
Mac Jones +100 +100
Justin Fields +100 +100
Trey Lance +175 +400

The odds began to shift on Monday during Lance’s second Pro Day in which he threw passes to former 49ers receiver Jordan Matthews. Wide receivers are not allowed to participate in multiple Pro Days in one season.

Lance is a bit of a mystery compared to the other quarterbacks at the top of draft boards. He played in just one game this season, completing 15-of-30 passes for 149 yards including two touchdowns and an interception. However, in 2019 he completed over 66% of his passes with 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions. One knock against him is the competition he faced wasn’t comparable to that of a power five schedule.

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Lance had previously received high praise at North Dakota State’s first Pro Day on March 12.

The event was attended by San Francisco’s head coach Kyle Shanahan, general manager John Lynch and quarterback coach Rich Scangarello, all of whom attended Fields’ workout as well.

Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and BYU’s Zach Wilson remain the favorites to go first (-10000) and second overall (-5000) to the Jaguars and Jets, respectively.

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