NFL Draft Betting Picks: Najee Harris First RB Drafted, DeVonta Smith To Eagles, More
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: DeVonta Smith, Najee Harris
**Editor’s note: The Action Network Staff is tracking prop bet results for the first round of the NFL Draft, here.
NFL Draft Betting Picks
|First RB Drafted: Najee Harris (-175) at Fox Bet|
|Over 4.5 First-Round WRs (-333)|
|DeVonta Smith Drafted by Eagles (+700)|
Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, breaks down his three favorite prop bets for the 2021 NFL Draft. From whether Najee Harris will be the first running back off the board to DeVonta Smith’s landing spot, find Koerner’s first-round betting picks below.
First RB Drafted: Najee Harris (-175) at Fox Bet
Harris is starting to gain some steam in this market.
I was able to lock him in at -150 before the bull run that drove this price into the -230 to -280 range (at sharper books). It makes sense despite both Harris and former Clemson running back Travis Etienne offering first-round potential. I consider Etienne to have a higher ceiling, while Harris provides a higher floor. If a team were to surprise us and take a RB inside the top 20, it’s more likely to be for Etienne. However, that scenario is unlikely.
The most likely team to draft the first RB is the Steelers, who are -150 to spend their first pick on a RB. They’ve been linked to Harris, who would be an instant three-down back for them. And we all know that Mike Tomlin loves having a workhorse back. I am banking on this scenario with this bet.
Even if the Steelers ended up drafting a different position, this bet wouldn’t be toast — my main concern would be Tampa Bay taking Etienne at No. 32 because he seems like a better fit. However, the Bucs re-signed Leonard Fournette then brought in Giovani Bernard, which I would imagine lowered their odds of taking a RB (now at +500).
I would bet this up to -190.
Over 4.5 First-Round WRs (-333) at PointsBet
Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle are locks to go inside the top 16. Rashod Bateman seems likely to go toward the end of Round 1, as well. Kadarius Toney, Terrence Marshall, Elijah Moore and Rondale Moore are the wildcards who a WR-needy team could take a flier in the first.
The Bears, Titans, Saints, Bucs, Packers and Ravens offer plenty of potential “outs,” meaning any of them could be in the market for those wildcards. What makes this bet even more enticing is that the Ravens traded up with the Chiefs to get a second first-round pick. That makes it very likely for one of those picks to be a wide receiver.
I would bet this up to -400.
DeVonta Smith Drafted by Eagles (+700) at BetMGM
Smith’s draft position market currently sits at Over 11.5 (-140), which seems about right. It’s likely that his former teammate, Jaylen Waddle, will be the second WR off the board. This should leave Smith with a relatively narrow range of outcomes in which he’s selected in the 11-12 range.
NFL Mock Draft Database has 22% of mocks with Smith landing on the Eagles. This market should be closer to +300, so I’m locking in this price while I can.