Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: Ride with Manziel If Memphis Opens as a Dog?

After another high-scoring week in the AAF, one thing I'll be looking for this week is how much the totals are elevated as a result. There’s a chance a couple open a tad high, in which case I'll come in on the under.

You can use my projected totals (and spreads) to identify what lines we should be looking to bet — from as soon as the market opens and until lines close.

There's also a spreadsheet that you can use to plug whatever line and juice is available at your sportsbook to get an estimate of your perceived edge. You'll also find a recommended bet amount based on the size of your bankroll, which you can customize.

You can download the Excel file at the end of this story, but for now, here's a pre-filled example from a past week:

Now let's get into Week 7.

Here are my power ratings as of writing, which I've used to estimate lines for each matchup. We'll dig into all four below:

Orlando Apollos (5-1) at Atlanta Legends (2-4)

• Projected spread: Orlando -12
• Projected total: 42.5
• Time: 3 p.m. ET on Saturday
• TV: B/R Live

The Apollos suffered their first lost last week at the hands of Arizona. I’m treating it as a hiccup rather than anything to be concerned with — I didn't even consider removing them from the top spot in my power ratings.

The Apollos are now headed to Atlanta to play arguably the league's worst team. There’s no question that Orlando will open up as a double-digit favorite — by how much remain to be seen. But I’m capping the Apollos at -12.

It’s worth noting that double-digit favorites are 0-4 against the spread, which could cause some bettors to be more hesitant about laying 10+ points moving forward as the AAF has been a pretty volatile league to handicap so far.

Salt Lake Stallions (2-4) at San Antonio Commanders (4-2)

• Projected spread: San Antonio -4.5
• Projected total: 39.5
• Time: 8 p.m. ET on Saturday
• TV: NFL Network

San Antonio managed to go 3-1 on a four-game road trip, which is a bit unheard of for a football team. Now the Commanders have the luxury of playing three straight home games, so it’s likely their stock can continue to climb as the season winds down.

The Commanders are carving out their own mini-tier as the clear-cut No. 2 team in the league.

I have a feeling Salt Lake commands enough respect to keep this below a touchdown opening spread. but I can see it opening in the -4 to -6 range and will likely stay away.

San Diego Fleet (3-3) at Arizona Hotshots (3-3)

• Projected spread: Arizona -4.5
• Projected total: 42.5
• Time: 4 p.m. ET on Sunday
• TV: CBS Sports Network

The Hotshots showed some signs of life in Week 6, becoming the first team to beat Orlando — and on the road, I might add.

I'm still hesitant to buy back into them being a top-two team, so it’ll take another solid game for me to trust them again. Having said that, they'll clearly be the favorites here and are a slightly better team than San Diego, so I’m guessing the Hotshots will between a 4- and 6-point favorites. I'll be looking for San Diego to be getting six or more points.

Birmingham Iron (3-3) at Memphis Express (1-5)

• Projected spread: Birmingham -5
• Projected total: 37
• Time: 8 p.m. ET on Sunday
• TV: NFL Network

Luis Perez hadn't thrown a passing touchdown in four-plus games and was then benched. Sure enough, he didn't start the following game and ended up throwing three passing touchdowns in a thrilling road win over San Diego.

That just about sums up the level of volatility we've seen in the AAF so far.

On the other side of the ball, it was Memphis that made waves off the field by signing Johnny Manziel. I’m expecting the Express to throw Johnny Football out there to start this week considering they're 1-5 in what is a 10-game schedule.

Manziel will likely give the Memphis offense a much needed boost over these last few games, but I’m holding off on adjusting this team rating — there’s a chance he's a bit rusty and struggles to learn an offense in just one week.

Similar to the previous couple games, I’m expecting Birmingham to be around a 4- to 6-point road favorite. I'll be looking for Memphis to be getting at least six points.

The opening numbers for a lot of AAF games have caught me by surprise, so we'll want to make sure to check the numbers as soon as they come out and try to get in on any of them that are off.

Koerner's Week 7 AAF Power Ratings Spreadsheet

Download the Excel file to input lines and juice from your sportsbook, as well as customize recommended bets based on your bankroll.