Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: How Much Should Orlando Be Favored over Memphis If Johnny Manziel Starts?

Koerner’s AAF Power Ratings: How Much Should Orlando Be Favored over Memphis If Johnny Manziel Starts? article feature image

Courtesy of @AAFExpress/Twitter. Pictured: Johnny Manziel

  • Use Sean Koerner's projected spreads and totals from his AAF Power Ratings to bet Week 8 games, including Johnny Manziel's potential first start in Orlando-Memphis.

We’re down to the final three weeks of regular-season action before the AAF’s inaugural postseason kicks off, and the league is starting to take clear shape.

I’ve used my power ratings for all eight teams to project spread and totals for this weekend’s games, which we can use to identify what lines we should be looking to bet — from as soon as the market opens and until lines close.

There’s also a spreadsheet that you can use to plug whatever line and juice is available at your sportsbook to run against my projections and get an estimate of your perceived edge. You’ll also find a recommended bet amount based on the size of your bankroll, which you can customize.

You can download the Excel file at the end of this story, but here’s a pre-filled example from a past week for now:

Now let’s get into Week 8.

Here are my power ratings as of writing, which I’ve used to estimate lines for each matchup. We’ll dig into all four below:

Orlando Apollos (6-1) at Memphis Express (2-5)

  • Projected spread: Orlando -10
  • Projected total: 43.5
  • Time: 2 p.m. ET on Saturday
  • TV: B/R Live

The Apollos quickly put their Week 6 loss behind them with a convincing 36-6 win over Atlanta in Week 7, becoming the first team to clinch an AAF playoff berth. Expect them to play at full strength this week, but we could see them rest starters come Week 10 if they have the top seed locked up.

Meanwhile, the Express had a breakout quarterback performance in their Week 7 comeback win over Birmingham. And to everyone’s surprise, it was not courtesy of newly-acquired Johnny Manziel. Brandon Silvers led the way with a 24-for-35, 266-yard and two-touchdown game through the air.

We have to assume the Express will start Manziel next game, as he should not only sell more tickets, but also have a better handle of the offense by this weekend.

I’ll be looking to see if Orlando opens at -10 and pounce if it’s two or more points off in either direction.

San Diego Fleet (3-4) at Salt Lake Stallions (2-5)

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