Cardinals-Falcons Betting Preview: The NFL’s Worst Team ATS Is a Double-Digit Favorite

Cardinals-Falcons Betting Preview: The NFL’s Worst Team ATS Is a Double-Digit Favorite article feature image
Credit:

Jay Biggerstaff, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Larry Fitzgerald

Betting odds: Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons

  • Spread: Falcons -10
  • Over/Under: 44
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: At 3-10, the Cardinals are tied for the worst team in the NFL. However, the Falcons are 3-10 against the spread, all alone for worst record in the eyes of bettors.

With them being such large favorites, 57% of bettors are fading them and taking the Cards plus the points. The public support the line has moved to -10 (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant

Trend to know: Considering picking the Falcons in a survivor pool or as  a safe moneyline or survivor pick this week? In Matt Ryan’s career, he is 9-2 straight up when facing teams who are scoring fewer than 14 points per game. However, in his last two games in this spot he is 0-2 straight up. — Evan Abrams

Did you know? The Falcons have lost five straight and are favored by more than a touchdown. Atlanta is just the eighth team since 2003 to accomplish this feat. The previous seven teams went 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS. — John Ewing

The home team has won the last nine meetings straight up between the Cardinals and Falcons dating back to 2001. The last time the road team won in this fixture was on September 30, 2001, when Chris Chandler and the Falcons beat Jake Plummer and the Cardinals in Arizona. — Evan Abrams

The Falcons are also the worst team in the NFL against the second-half spread this season at 3-10. — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Larry Fitzgerald in the slot

Josh Rosen’s target distribution in the offense’s first game without Christian Kirk (foot, IR) featured David Johnson (10 targets), Larry Fitzgerald (9), Trent Sherfield (7) and J.J. Nelson (7).

Fitz seems to be the most likely candidate to continue to see a hefty target share and is set up for success against a Falcons defense that has struggled against seemingly any-and-every slot receiver this season.

  • Nelson Agholor (8-33-0)
  • Tyler Boyd (11-100-0)
  • Juju Smith-Schuster (4-34-1)
  • Adam Humphries (3-82-0)
  • Maurice Harris (10-124-0)
  • Sterling Shepard (5-167-0)
  • Jarvis Landry (2-22-0)
  • Cole Beasley (5-51-0)
  • Randall Cobb (5-43-1)
Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Rosen

The floor is low for anyone involved in an offense presently implied to score just 17.75 points, but Fitz is popping a bit in our FantasyLabs Pro Models on DraftKings, where his $4,700 price tag comes with a +2.4 Projected Plus/Minus. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Cardinals

The Cardinals could be without linebacker Deone Bucannon (chest), wide receiver Chad Williams (ankle), safety Budda Baker (knee) and right guard Oday Aboushi (toe) for their Week 15 matchup against the Falcons.

Things aren’t any prettier on the other sideline, as each of tight end Austin Hooper (knee) along with defensive tackles Grady Jarrett (groin, shoulder) and Terrell McClain (toe) aren’t guaranteed to suit up Sunday.

The good news is Deion Jones (toe) and Julio Jones (foot, calf, illness) are tentatively expected to suit up despite not getting in a full practice all week.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: David Johnson’s 22.8 touches per game since Week 8 rank fourth among all running backs. In fact, his 75.5% carry share in that time frame trails only Nick Chubb and Ezekiel Elliott.

Johnson has an extremely favorable matchup against a Falcons defense that ranks 31st in rush DVOA and is allowing 8.8 targets and 59.8 receiving yards per game to opposing backfields.

DJ could continue to be heavily involved in the passing game since the Cardinals are 10-point underdogs in Atlanta.

He checks in with a solid 94% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but he’s especially in play on a full-PPR site like DraftKings. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: All of our experts are staying away from this game at the moment, but we’ll update this file is that changes as more props get posted closer to kickoff.


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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