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The New England Patriots and Value at -500 Odds


John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

A common misconception among recreational bettors is that all large favorites are bad bets due to very small payouts. For example, the New England Patriots are listed at -500 to win the AFC East, meaning it takes a wager of $500 to win $100 should the Pats capture their 10th straight divisional crown.


While there are other factors to consider before making bets such as this one — limits, tying up your money for long periods of time, etc. — the purpose of this post is to explain how large favorites can still provide plenty of value, even when laying hefty moneyline odds.

According to results from the most recent Bet Labs NFL simulations, the Patriots have a 95.8% chance to win the AFC East this season. The -500 odds currently available translate to an implied probability of 83.33%, indicating that even with a “bad payout”, that number does offer value.

As anyone who bet Floyd Mayweather to beat Conor McGregor knows, big moneyline favorites can still offer plenty of betting value, and the Patriots to once again reign supreme in the AFC East is one of those wagers.

Top Photo: New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) celebrates with Patriots quarterback Tom Brady after scoring a touchdown against the Philadelphia Eagles during the fourth quarter in Super Bowl 52

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