2018 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Catalina Fragoso – USA TODAY Sports
- Saquon Barkley leads the list with 3-2 odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Baker Mayfield is next on the list at 3-1 and the most likely quarterback to earn OROY honors.
- At 16-1, Calvin Ridley has the best odds of this year's rookie wide receivers to win the award.
The draft has come and gone and in its wake, there has been a smorgasbord of content here at The Action Network regarding futures, win totals, value plays and more.
Tonight, we have odds for some individual hardware: Offensive Rookie of the Year. Now that we know where all of the big names landed, oddsmakers have released their initial OROY list.
Last season’s winner, Alvin Kamara, was not listed when odds initially came out. In fact, he wasn’t even listed until about halfway through the season. Dak Prescott, who won the year before, was listed at 500-1 before Tony Romo was injured.
Atop the odds list sits the new Giants running back, Saquon Barkley. His +150 odds suggest a 40% chance of him winning, with #1 pick Baker Mayfield next in line at +300 and a 25% implied probability.
While most of the top QBs drafted will have to battle for the starting job, Barkley should get a ton of touches right from the start of the season. If he’s as good as everyone believes he is, he could be one of the top backs in the entire league regardless of experience.
Mayfield is in an interesting spot because he isn’t necessarily guaranteed the starting job in Week 1 and has the tall task of battling Tyrod Taylor. In fact, Hue Jackson has already stated that he is the third QB on the depth chart right now.
The four quarterbacks who won the award this decade have all been the Week 1 starter, so it is tough to say how much of a hit his chances would take if he does ride the pine for the first few weeks or so.
The two Joshes each sit at 8-1, but are in completely different situations, first names aside. Allen appears to have the easier path to becoming a starter, as AJ McCarron and Nathan “five interceptions in one half” Peterman sit in his way. Meanwhile, Rosen has to deal with Sam Bradford … if he can stay healthy, that is.
The final two quarterbacks listed are Sam Darnold and Lamar Jackson, at 16-1 and 20-1, respectively. Like the other play-callers, each have obstacles in their way to getting on the field and are super-risky plays in my mind.
Much of the value may lie in the running back group toward the middle and lower part of the list. The highest of the group is Rashaad Penny, who Seattle is hoping can revive what was a non-existent running game last season and take some of the load off Russell Wilson. With many thinking the Seahawks are screwed this season due to some key departures, a big season from Penny along with a playoff berth could catch voters’ attention.
The first wide receiver listed is, of course, Calvin Ridley. Matt Ryan has a new toy and we all know that Atlanta wideouts can put up some gaudy numbers. However, he’ll likely start out as the team’s #3 receiver behind Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu.
Someone like D.J. Moore may be in a better spot, though, as he could potentially be the Panthers’ top target early on in the season. His 33-1 payout will definitely intrigue some folks.
Stay tuned @ActionNetworkHQ for more news throughout the offseason, updated odds and analysis as we inch closer to September.