Immediately after the NFL released its 2018 schedule, we ran 10,000 simulations of the upcoming season to reveal projected win totals for each team. We assumed sportsbooks would post win totals after the draft, but to our delight, oddsmakers opened NFL regular-season win totals Wednesday afternoon.


There is much we don’t know about the 2018 season, but with the market set, it’s time to fire at some win totals. Which teams are offering bettors value?

To determine if there is value betting a team to go over or under its win total, we compared our projections to the oddsmaker’s line. For the most part, our simulations agree with the betting market as 23 of 32 teams are within one game and six other squads within two.

That leaves three teams where the Bet Labs model has a projected difference of more than two games. Last year, our over/under picks for teams in the same sweet spot went 4-0, winning by 11.5 games.

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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