Gronk Is So Big Even His Point Spread Value Is Inflated
The Patriots are in the Super Bowl! Who would have guessed it?!? It’s not all sunshine and daisies for the Pats, though. While Tom Brady’s hand will have a couple of weeks to get back closer to 100%, he may be without one of his favorite targets: Gronk.
“Hey Gronk, here’s a tide pod do you want to eat it?”
“He’s good to go.”
— Travis Reed (@BetLabsTravis) January 21, 2018
After a hit to the head late in the second quarter, the first-team All-Pro tight end was not cleared to return due to concussion symptoms. While there’s a chance the doctor may have confused Gronk being Gronk for a brain injury, there is also a legitimate chance he will miss the Super Bowl.
How much would his absence impact the spread?
Though his worth to the spread is generally around a half point, public perception and the matchup can make him even more valuable. When it comes to non-quarterbacks, he’s considered to be one of the most valuable in the league, with his worth potentially being a point or more.
This morning, the offshore book 5Dimes listed the Patriots as -7 vs. the Eagles on their lookahead lines. They re-opened with the Patriots as 6.5 point favorites once the NFC championship game got out of hand, but the line has already moved to -5.5. Given the Eagles’ performance against Minnesota, I wouldn’t attribute the entire 1.5 point move since this morning Gronk’s injury.
Being Gronk-less in the big game is not unfamiliar territory for Brady and the Pats, as he missed last year’s against the Falcons. In fact, New England has fared quite well without him.
Though they struggled in their most recent game without Gronkowski, losing to the Dolphins while he was suspended, they’ve covered at more than a 60% rate historically. According to John Ewing of Bet Labs, the Pats are 23-8 straight up and 19-11-1 ATS when Gronk has been out. That includes a perfect 8-0 straight up and ATS streak to end last season.
Photo via Mark J. Rebilas – USA TODAY Sports