Las Vegas – So nothing controversial happened in the Week 15, right? Just a run-of-the-mill week in the NFL, with no frustrated fans or players, right? I’m sure Pittsburgh, for one, and possibly Oakland agree.
Well, let’s look ahead to games I’m thinking about taking in Week 16 of the Westgate SuperContest. I went 3-0-2 last week to improve my record to 41-29-5 and push me into the top 200. I’m still climbing, but I’m not into the money yet. Favorites went 8-3-3 last week, and I expect a similar run this week.
(Lines are from the Westgate’s early release. Subject to change on Wednesday when the official lines come out.)
Rams -6.5 at Titans
Is there any other team more pathetic that the Titans right now? Tennessee has lost two games in a row, to the Cardinals and the 49ers, after being unable to stop the Jimmy Garoppolo train from kicking a last-second field goal to earn a push. On the field, the Titans are now 8-6 and going down the drain. On the complete other end are the Rams, who went to Seattle and kicked the living daylights out of the Seahawks. It was 34-0 in the first half! Now, the many, many injuries to Seattle’s defense were a big reason for this, but the Rams showed that they are in playoff form and they aren’t going to slow down for anyone. While you could say this is a letdown spot, I don’t think it is in Week 16. There is too much on the line to come out flat. If the line for this game in under 7, I’m hammering it.
Jags -4.5 at 49ers
Welcome to the end of San Francisco’s three-game winning streak. Look, I love Jimmy G, but he hasn’t been able to produce in the red zone due to the lack of legit targets on the field. The 49ers will fix that next year, but this is a bad, bad matchup for him. The Jags are coming off a 45-7 blowout of the Texans and know they have to keep it going in order to secure the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs. I’m actually floored at this line, because it should be about 10 in my opinion. Blake Bortles was 21 of 29 for 326 yards and three touchdowns vs. Houston. Yes, that Blake Bortles. The 49ers’ defense gives up big plays, and I think even with the injuries for Jacksonville, they cover this line easily.
Cowboys – 4.5 vs. Seattle
Dallas’ Vegsa lines are always one or two points higher than they should be because the public loves to hammer the Cowboys. But the Seahawks looked horrible against Rams and they couldn’t stop Todd Gurley, who ran for 152 yards and three touchdowns and caught another in a 42-7 loss at home. It was the worst loss in the eight seasons under head coach Pete Carroll. This game marks the return of RB Zeke Elliott to the active roster after his six-game suspension, and he looks ripped after training in Cabo during his forced layoff. The Cowboys went 3-3 in his absence and must win their last two games to have a shot at the postseason. I expect Elliott to have a big game, and with the Seahawks fighting each other in the press, I like the Boys by seven. Hopefully, we aren’t using folded up pieces of paper to determine a key first down is this one.
Ravens -13 vs. Colts
This is a potential play. I’m not sure about this game yet, but the Ravens beat the Browns and covered a double-digit line last week on the road. This game is in Baltimore, and the Ravens have won four of 5. The loss was a one-point defeat at Pittsburgh, and their offense looks liked it has finally come around. The Ravens have scored 20 or more points in seven straight games. The Colts have three wins and are playing for nothing. They lost 25-13 to Broncos on Thursday Night Football, and the extra time to prep for this game is causing me to pause on taking this for sure. They could keep it within two touchdowns but probably not.
Patriots -12.5 vs. Bills
One of my rules is that I never bet against the Patriots at home against a divisional rival. These are the games that Pats make into laughers early. Coming off a controversial win at Pittsburgh, I really like New England in this spot. The Bills are basically out of the playoff chase, but they always play hard against the Pats. New England dropped their last divisional game at Miami, but they simply don’t lose games like this. Tom Brady and company will want to stay sharp for the upcoming playoffs, and their defense will continue to get healthier.
Week 15 Recap
I’m inching up toward the money thanks to another week without a loss. Now, I got a push in the Pats and the 49ers’ games this week, and both were a little lucky, but that’s gambling, right? I cruised with the Rams and Jags blowouts and took the Chiefs to win on Saturday night outright. After the 3-0-2 mark, I’m sitting in a tie for 195th place out of over 2,600 teams. Lotta work to do over these next 10 picks to make the top 50.
Team Sports Action had a good week, going 3-1-1 to improve their overall record to 36-36-3. With 37.5 points, Sports Action is now back into the top half.
After going 2-2-1, Team Bet The Process now has an overall record of 38-34-3. Bet has 39.5 points and is in a tie for 852nd place.