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Are Oddsmakers Overvaluing the 2018 Jacksonville Jaguars?


Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Highlights:

  • Oddsmakers are high on the Jaguars after their breakout 2017 season.
  • Our simulations of the upcoming season suggest that a different AFC South team should be the division favorite.

The Jaguars exceeded expectations in 2017, surpassing their Vegas win total of 6.5 in Week 11, winning the AFC South and ultimately making the AFC Championship game after two playoff victories.


They had the best rushing offense (yards per game), the best pass defense (yards per game), the second-most interceptions, the second-most sacks and gave up the second-fewest points per game in the NFL.

As a result, oddsmakers at Westgate made the Jags a +140 favorite to repeat as AFC South champs. Seems reasonable, right?


After running 10,000 simulations of the upcoming season, our Bet Labs model shows the Jaguars winning the AFC South only 38.8% of the time — a rate that would equate to betting odds of +157.

So maybe the odds aren’t too far off, but this begs the question: Who will ultimately take the division title?

According to the sims, the Houston Texans deserve to be an odds-on favorite. Winning the division in 50.2% of simulations, Houston looks to be wildly underpriced at +180.

Top photo: Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey (20) celebrates with cornerback Aaron Colvin (22)

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