Ravens-Chargers Saturday Betting Preview: Does Baltimore Have the Right Recipe for the Upset?

Dec 22, 2018 03:30 PM EST

Tommy Gilligan, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson

Betting odds: Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers

  • Spread: Chargers -4
  • Over/Under: 43.5
  • Time: Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: NFL Network

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: Despite the Chargers getting more than 60% of the tickets, the line has dropped from Chargers -4.5 to -4. That likely means respected money has come in on Baltimore.

More notably, the total has ticked down from 45 to 43.5 thanks to an overwhelming majority of the money coming in on the under (see live betting data here.) — PJ Walsh

Trends to Know: Baltimore is 8-6 but has outscored its opponents by 88 points, which is better than the Patriots and Texans, two teams with better records.

It has been profitable to bet on underperforming good teams late in the season, according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing

The Chargers are rolling. They are 11-3, have won four games on the spin and are in a battle with the Chiefs for the AFC West. However, Los Angeles has won its past three games by an average of just three points, so there is some luck at play.

Since 2003, teams who have won at least three straight games, with an average margin of victory of fewer than four points in those contests, are just 10-21 against the spread (32.3%).– Evan Abrams

The Ravens are allowing just 18.1 points per game this season, which is the best mark in the NFL. That would normally spell bad news for an opposing quarterback, but somehow Philip Rivers thrives against good defenses.

He is 24-12 ATS in 36 career games against defenses allowing fewer than 20 PPG in November or later. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: This is a massive game for both teams. Baltimore is currently the No. 6 seed, due to owning tiebreakers over Indy and Tennessee. Both of those teams are favored to win in Week 16; the Ravens are not, which is why our sims give them a less than 50% chance of making the playoffs.

The Chargers, meanwhile, still have a good chance to get the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. They’ll need Kansas City to slip up on Sunday night at Seattle, but that game will matter less if LA doesn’t take care of business on Saturday. Scott T. Miller