Ravens-Titans Betting Preview: Expect a Low-Scoring Affair in Tennessee?

Ravens-Titans Betting Preview: Expect a Low-Scoring Affair in Tennessee? article feature image

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Terrell Suggs

Betting odds: Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans

  • Spread: Ravens -2.5
  • Over/Under: 41.5
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: The Ravens got hammered pretty early on, moving from a PK to -3 a little more than 12 hours after opening. There was some buyback on the Titans though, as they’ve moved to +2.5 or a heavily juiced +3 since then.

With 61% of bets as of writing (see live data here), this is the second-most popular under of the week. The total has fallen from 42.5 to 41.5 since opening. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Titans enter this matchup 3-2 straight up and against the spread.

Since 2003, teams above .500 both SU and ATS that are listed as a home underdog in October or later in the season are only 59-71-6 ATS (-14.1 units). Evan Abrams

Did you know? The Ravens have covered the spread by an average of 8.6 points this season.

After the first month of the season, it has been profitable to fade such teams as oddsmakers are more likely to inflate their lines expecting casual gamblers to cash previous results. John Ewing

How similar are the Titans and Ravens heading into this matchup?

Well, both teams are…

  • 3-2 SU and ATS
  • 2-0 SU and ATS at home
  • 1-2 SU and ATS on road
  • 2-3 to the under
  • 1-1 split O/U at home
  • 1-2 to the under on the road
  • Lost SU and ATS last week on the road while scoring and allowing less than two touchdowns with both games going under the total

Cue Spiderman meme. Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Ravens front seven vs. Titans offensive line

The Titans haven’t been able to get their rushing going this season, ranking 26th in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards per rush  and yet to have a rusher gain more than 75 yards in a single game.

Meanwhile, the Ravens defense is nearing full health and ranks seventh in Adjusted Line Yards allowed per rush.Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Ravens

Baltimore’s only players at risk of missing the game are defensive tackle Michael Pierce (foot), outside linebacker Tim Williams (hamstring) and slot corner Tavon Young (hip).

The only true injury issue on either side of the ball is the Titans front seven, which could be without linebackers Kamalei Correa (foot), Wesley Woodyard (shoulder) and Will Compton (hamstring), along with defensive tackle Bennie Logan (elbow) and safety Kenny Vaccaro (elbow).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz

DFS edge: The Ravens defense is at an affordable price on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 6. Baltimore will take on a struggling Tennessee offense that’s averaging only 4.8 yards per play. Only the Bills and Cardinals have been worse. Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Under 41.5

Both the Titans and Ravens are in the top half of the league in Football Outsiders’ DVOA on defense and against the pass, with Baltimore ranked inside the top five in both this season.

The Ravens are coming off back-to-back road games in which they and their opponents combined to score 40 points or less in each.

One reason I think that trend continues this week is that the Ravens should be able to slow down the Titans offense, especially with left tackle Taylor Lewan (foot) ailing a bit heading into Sunday.

Lewan has had a positive Pro Football Focus grade every season of his career, and he only allowed 22 plays of pressure in 2017 — the second-fewest among offensive tackles who played at least as many passing plays as Lewan (495).

The Titans’ rush offense is being stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage on 11.7% of carries, the ninth-worst rate in the league. Tennessee’s big-play percentage is near the bottom of the league, as well, with only 7.6% of all rushing attempts going for 10-plus yards, sixth-worst in the NFL.

Add to that, the Ravens rush defense is stuffing opponents 15% of the time, second in the NFL. All of which leads me to the under.

One of the more intriguing matchups will be the Ravens offense against the Titans defense in the red zone.

Baltimore has scored touchdowns on 65% of its red-zone trips (13-of-20), eighth in the league. The Tennessee defense has given up only three red-zone touchdowns on 13 trips (23.1%), best in the NFL. — Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.