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Thanksgiving NFL Matchup Manifesto: Bears Don’t Need Mitchell Trubisky to Tame the Lions, More

Nov 22, 2018 10:30 AM EST
  • Ian Hartitz helps you leverage matchup stats for fantasy football and betting purposes in Thanksgiving Day games.
  • See how the Bears are still in a favorable position against the Lions whether Mitchell Trubisky or Chase Daniel starts.
  • The Redskins will struggle on the ground against the Cowboys while the Falcons nor Saints should have trouble through the air.

The NFL is a matchup-driven league. The goal here is to break down the following key matchups in Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions, Washington Redskins-Dallas Cowboys and Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints:

  • Directional Passer Rating  
  • Yards Per Attempt by Position
  • Directional Adjusted Line Yards per Rush
  • WR/CB Snap and Physical Profiles
  • WR/CB Combined Yards Per Route Run 

What follows is essentially a condensed version of my weekly matchup analysis for every game.

The following charts highlight the largest mismatches that will ultimately help you gain actionable betting and fantasy takeaways for these Thanksgiving Day showdowns.

Note: This data is based on what has happened in Weeks 1-11

Quarterbacks

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
56.5
-3.5
53.5
-3.5
-6.5
42.5
-6
41.5
44.5
-4
45.5
-3
44
-3
43.5
-2.5
47.5
-8.5
46.5
-8
46.5
-5
45
-6
38
PK
38.5
-2.5
46.5
-3.5
46
-3
44
-9
44
-9
44
-9.5
44.5
-7
47
-3
47
-3
36
-8.5
36
-7
-5.5
44.5
-5
44
-1
52.5
-1.5
52.5
54.5
-9.5
53.5
-9
-7
54
-6
51.5

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