Bears vs. Lions Odds, Betting Pick: Target Chicago Moneyline in NFL Week 1 Matchup With Detroit
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Khalil Mack #52 of the Chicago Bears and Isaac Nauta #89
The 2020 NFL season is still almost two months away, but Week 1 odds are already up, allowing savvy bettors to go ahead and get down on good early numbers.
Not only are betting odds available, but The Action Network’s NFL software and tools are firing as well, pinpointing which Week 1 matchups are already worth targeting.
This means that our Bet Labs software is cranking out Pro System matches, which represent the biggest edges based on both historical and real-time betting data.
One of those systems is already producing three Week 1 matches, including an edge on the Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions NFC North matchup.
Here’s a detailed look at our Early Season Upsets Pro System and more information on how bettors should approach Bears vs. Lions.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions Odds, Betting Pick
Bet Labs’ Early Season Upsets NFL Pro System targets smaller underdogs (defined as underdogs of fewer than six points) playing divisional opponents early in the season.
Historical NFL analysis tells us that familiarity between teams within the same division keeps games closer than expected, which is an advantage for the underdogs in those games.
In addition, we’ve also learned that early in the season casual bettors are biased toward the previous season’s results as opposed to current information. Once the new season progresses, recreational bettors have more recent results to lean on, but it can take a month and even longer for that transition to occur.
As you can see, teams in this scenario have produced a profit of 43.43 units (meaning betting $100 on every system match would have earned $4,343) and an 18.7% return on investment (ROI) on the moneyline (as opposed to the spread) since the start of the 2005 season.
Remember, this range of moneyline underdogs will include mostly plus-money payouts, explaining why the system is so profitable with just a 48.3% overall win rate.
The Bears are consensus 1.5-point underdogs against the Lions, making a Chicago a match for this system.