Bears vs. Packers Betting Odds & Pick: The Team Undervalued at Lambeau Field

Bears at Packers Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

• Odds: Packers -4
• Over/Under: 40
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

The Packers are tied with the Vikings for the most wins at home this season (six) and haven't lost in Lambeau since September. Now with the Bears in town, one would expect the public to hammer the Packers, but the ticket count has essentially been split as of Thursday.

Are the Bears the right side of this bet? Our experts preview this NFC North showdown, featuring analysis of the key matchup, projected odds and a pick.

Bears-Packers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Packers

Unlike most teams, the Packers have gotten healthier as the season has progressed. Every noteworthy player on their injury report at least got in a limited practice session, suggesting they're all trending toward playing.

Cornerback Kevin King (shoulder) would be the main injury to monitor since he practiced in full last Friday but was still ruled out, and he’s now getting in limited work early in the week.

The Bears placed linebacker Roquan Smith (pectoral) on injured reserve and could also be down linebacker Danny Trevathan (elbow) again, which would leave them without two of their core linebackers. Taylor Gabriel and Ben Braunecker also have yet to clear the concussion protocol, putting them at risk of missing another game. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

David Montgomery/Tarik Cohen vs. Packers Rush Defense

The Packers rushing defense has struggled all season, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. While the Packers held the Bears to 46 total rushing yards in Week 1, that is no longer reasonable expectation for this unit.

In their past five games, the Packers have allowed an average of 121.4 rushing yards with six rushing touchdowns. Last week, 34-year-old Adrian Peterson averaged 3.8 yards per carry with a score, while Derrius Guice averaged 8.4 yards per carry before exiting with an injury.

The mismatch exists, but can the Bears take advantage?

Montgomery has seen his carries increase each of the past three weeks, while averaging 80.5 rushing yards per game in Weeks 13 and 14. He's very elusive, ranking 11th among all running backs with 62 evaded tackles and ninth in juke rate among all running backs (PlayerProfiler).

Cohen should also be able to attack Green Bay, both on the ground and in the passing game, using his 4.42 40-yard dash speed to produce big plays. The Bears have allowed more than 40 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs and Cohen ranks sixth at the position with 80 targets.

The Packers' defensive metrics illustrate their struggles, ranking a nondescript 17th against the run and 26th against the pass. While Mitchell Trubisky has produced QB4 and QB3 performances over the past two weeks, the key for the Packers will center around how they limit the Bears' rushing attack. — Mike Randle

Sean Koerner's Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Packers -5
• Projected Total: 40.5

The Packers are currently the second-luckiest team in terms of their actual record (10-3) vs. their Pythagorean expected record of 7.5-5.5. A lot of it has to do with their 5-1 record in one-score games, which can often lead to the market overrating them.

Meanwhile the Bears are trending up with Trubisky flashing some of the upside we saw in 2018, using his legs to pick up chunk gains when nothing is available for him in the passing game. Akiem Hicks is also due back, which should help improve their run defense considerably.

The market opened at Packers -5, but sharp action has moved it to -4, which is about right to me.

The total has been parked at 40 despite there being an interesting tickets vs. money split: 61% of the tickets have come in on the over while 62% of the money has come in on the under as of writing (see live public betting data here).

My projected total is right in line with the market, but I don’t always make bets based on my power ratings — they’re only one piece of the puzzle. This matchup lends itself to the under based on a few factors. First, this is graded as my second-slowest paced matchup of the week. We can also expect a low percentage of explosive plays. In fact, this is the lowest graded game for explosive play potential at -10%.

Forty-one is a key number in over/under betting, so I’ll be waiting to see if this reaches 41 or 41.5 before potentially taking the under.— Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

The Bears are an NFL-worse 3-9-1 against the spread this season. The Packers have been one of the most profitable teams going 8-5 ATS.

Gamblers tend to remember which teams cover and bet accordingly. Casual bettors will likely be on the Cheeseheads, but history tells us Trubisky and Co. are undervalued.

Bad ATS teams have been good bets against the spread, and the optimal time to bet them is against good ATS teams late in the season.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 174-107-10 (61.9%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,735 following this strategy. — John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Pick

Matthew Freedman: Packers -4

Aaron Rodgers has notable home/away ATS splits.

• Home: 50-30-3 | 23.4% ROI
• Away: 44-41-1 | 1.7% ROI

In the Rodgers era (since 2008), the Packers score differential relative to their opponents has been 8.5 points higher at home than on the road. That home/away split is easily the highest in the league.

At Lambeau Field, the Packers truly have a home-field advantage.

Matthew Freedman is 508-383-21 (57%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.