NFL Picks For Bears vs. Rams: 5 Ways To Bet Monday Night Football
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The Los Angeles Rams will host the Chicago Bears for a Monday Night Football showdown.
Our staff has you covered with how they’re betting the primetime matchup, complete with total and prop angles.
Bears vs. Rams Picks
We’ve included books offering the best lines as of writing, but you can compare real-time odds here.
1H Under 21.5
Rams Under 25.5
Chris Raybon: Unders
I preview the matchup in further detail here, but this sets up as a low-scoring defensive slugfest with a wide range of outcomes and an increased chance for high-variance events like field goals, turnovers or trick plays to decide the outcome.
So instead of betting a side, I’m looking to target unders in various fashions:
- Full-Game Under 44.5: These two teams are averaging a combined 22.5 points total the last two matchups, and there’s nothing to suggest a massive shift. I make this line 42.5, and our PRO Consensus has it at 42.7.
- First-Half Under 21.5: These teams both rank among the bottom-five In slowest first-half pace.
- Rams Team Total Under 25.5: The Rams’ median point total is 25.5 this season and this is easily the best defense they’ve faced. The winner has failed to top 25.5 in four of six Bears games and three of six Rams games this season.
Brandon Anderson: Bears +6; Under 44.5
The story of this game will be turnovers.
The Rams have turned it over in every game, and both of these teams have relied heavily on turnovers for their scoring so far. L.A.’s two highest-scoring games of the season came against the Eagles and Bills, against whom the Rams forced five turnovers combined. They’ve forced only one in the other four games and average only 20.8 points per game in them, with all four of them at or under 40 total points including their last three in a row.
Chicago has also been at or below 40 total points in four of its games. In the Bears’ one game in which they didn’t force a turnover, they scored only 11 points. In two games in which they tied the turnover battle, they eked out late wins by one and four points.
Chicago averages just 21.3 points per game on the season.
I think both sides will struggle to put together long, sustained scoring drives, relying heavily on the rare short field.
The Bears will take away the underneath and screen stuff and pressure Jared Goff, and those are the games he struggles in. The Rams should be able to run the ball, but will that be enough? On the other side, Nick Foles should struggle with the Rams’ pressure, too. Each of these quarterbacks are mistake prone, and the wrong mistake at the wrong time could be all it takes in this one.
Unless one side wins the turnover battle handedly, I expect a close, low-scoring battle. That’s exactly the sort of game Chicago thrives in.
With the total in the mid 40s and Chicago getting nearly a touchdown, I like the game to go under and allow the Bears to hang around late. I’m playing both angles together in a parlay at +230 through DraftKings, with the Bears +6 and the under-44.5. And as always, with a bet like this, be sure to sprinkle a small portion of the bet on the Bears moneyline outright.
The way the Bears’ season has been going, we might hit the trifecta.
Mike Randle: Jimmy Graham Over 2.5 Receptions (-155)
With Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey likely limiting Bears wide receiver Allen Robinson, look for Graham to become a reliable short to intermediate target for quarterback Nick Foles.
The Bears tight end has reached this total in five of the Bears’ six games, including five-receptions in last week’s 23-16 win at Carolina. Los Angeles ranks just middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and were eviscerated by San Francisco’s George Kittle — seven receptions for 109 yards and one touchdown — last week.
Graham’s statistics this season clearly support this bet. He ranks fifth in targets (36), sixth in receptions (22), ninth in fantasy points per game (11.1) and first in red-zone targets among all tight ends.
With Chicago’s limited offensive playmakers, this line is simply too low. This is a 10-rated player prop in our Fantasy Labs tool, which this season have a hit rate of 60% (222-146-5). I’m comfortably taking Graham over 2.5 receptions.