Best Colts-Texans Wild Card Player Props: Eric Ebron Receptions, More
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eric Ebron (85), Deshaun Watson (4).
- There are two player props offering betting value in the early game on Saturday's Wild Card slate.
- This piece will focus on QB Deshaun Watson and TE Eric Ebron.
There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Colts-Texans matchup on Saturday afternoon, which kicks off at 4:35 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN.
The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props.
So will the player props tool at FantasyLabs, which takes each prop bet listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverages them against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.
*All odds as of 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday
Texans QB Deshaun Watson
The pick: Under 43.5 rushing yards (+110)
Watson is an excellent runner, but the Colts have been stingy on the ground, ranking fourth in rush DVOA.
And, the Colts zone is excellent at containing quarterbacks, holding them to just 13.92 rushing yards per game, per Sports Info Solutions.
Additionally, 24 of Watson’s 99 rushing attempts this season have come when he’s faced with pressure and the Colts rank just 21st in pressure rate.
The Colts held him under 42 rushing yards in both meetings this season, and we presently have Watson projected for 33.6 yards in the FantasyLabs prop tool.
Colts TE Eric Ebron
The pick: Over 4.5 reception (-115)
With T.Y. Hilton playing at less than 100%, the over on Ebron’s receiving prop is intriguing. Especially since he’s averaging 8.8 targets per game with Jack Doyle out of the lineup this season.
This is a fair line for Ebron since he’s also averaging 4.8 receptions per game without Doyle, but the Texans have struggled to defend tight ends this year, allowing the sixth-highest completion rate (74.02%) and 5.87 receptions per game.
I’ll bet on the volume here and hope the receptions follow.