James Lang-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz
- The Philadelphia Eagles are +1600 to win the Super Bowl with Carson Wentz returning from injury in Week 3.
- The Action Network ran 10,000 simulations of the 2018 NFL season.
- By comparing our projections to available betting lines, three teams, including the Eagles, are worthy of a Super Bowl bet.
There is a new Super Bowl favorite. After two weeks, the Los Angeles Rams have vaulted to the top of the odds list. The oddsmakers at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas list the Rams as +450 favorites to win the championship.
Sean McVay, Jared Goff and Todd Gurley have LA’s offense humming, and the new additions of Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib have solidified a defense that is conceding fewer than seven points per game.
The Action Network’s NFL model also sees Los Angeles as the most likely Super Bowl champion. According to 10,000 simulations, the Rams lift the Lombardi Trophy 18.9% of the time.
If the model and the market agree that LA is the best team, is there value betting the Rams to win the Super Bowl? Not really. The implied probability of the Rams winning is 18.2% based on the current odds.
Bettors wouldn’t necessarily be wrong to place a wager on the Rams, but Los Angeles is properly priced. There are however three teams with value to win the Super Bowl based on the difference in implied probability and projected chance.
Pro tip: shop around for the best line.
- Current odds: +1600, Implied Probability: 5.9%
- Eagles win Super Bowl 10.6% of the time
In the preseason, the Eagles were tied for the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl. With the Eagles off to a 1-1 start, Philadelphia’s odds have slid from +1000 to +1600 (ninth-best). It seems oddsmakers and bettors forgot about Carson Wentz.
Wentz, an MVP candidate in 2017 before getting injured, has been cleared for contact and will start in Week 3. Philly’s franchise quarterback finished second in the NFL last season with 33 passing touchdowns despite missing the final three games.
Nick Foles did a great job filing in for Wentz during the Eagles’ title run but hasn’t been the same quarterback (25th in passer rating, one touchdown, one interception) in 2018.
Wentz should rejuvenate the offense, and if he gets off to a slow start, he’ll have the support of a defense and special teams unit that is projected to rank in the top 10 the rest of the season by Football Outsiders.
- Current odds: +1000, Implied Probability: 9.1%
- Vikings win Super Bowl 12.8% of the time
This might sound crazy with Aaron Rodgers playing in the NFC North, but the Vikings are one of the most likely teams to win their division. The model gives Minnesota a 74.0% chance of capturing the division for a third time in four years.
Rodgers is the best quarterback in the division, but Kirk Cousins isn’t far off after throwing for 425 yards and four touchdowns against the Packers on Sunday.
To win the Super Bowl you have to first make the playoffs, and the easiest way to reach the postseason is to win your division. Minnesota is in position to do just that.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Current odds: +1200, Implied Probability: 7.7%
- Chiefs win Super Bowl 9.1% of the time
Patrick Mahomes is on pace for an 80-touchdown season. 80! The young passer is the first player to toss 10 touchdown passes in his first three games.
Mahomes won’t be able to maintain this pace, but with an assortment of offensive weapons (Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt) the Chiefs will be hard to stop when they have the ball.