Our NFL Model’s Best Week 1 Value Bets

Our NFL Model’s Best Week 1 Value Bets article feature image

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL released 2018 regular season schedules for all 32 teams Thursday afternoon. Not to miss out on the hype, sportsbooks got to work posting lines for every Week 1 game as well.

With betting lines available, the analysts at Bet Labs dusted off our trusty NFL model to determine the biggest early edges, based on current Week 1 numbers.


After comparing the model’s true odds to current lines posted at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, these are the best values available for NFL Week 1:

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Westgate: Colts -1
Model: Bengals -4.5

With Andrew Luck still not throwing actual footballs, it’s easy to question why the Colts are favored in this matchup. And even if Luck is ready, the rest of Indy’s roster is extremely underwhelming — the team finished 31st in Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) last season.

Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders

Westgate: Rams -1.5
Model: Rams -6.7

You can go ahead and get used to this theme for all of our offseason posts — our model does not like the Oakland Raiders. Jon Gruden “making Raiders football 1999 again” has not helped this roster, especially when playing on the road against a LOADED Rams squad.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

Westgate: Titans -2.5
Model: Titans -6.6

Ryan Tannehill returns from a torn ACL after missing the entire 2017-18 season, but no longer has Jarvis Landry as his safety valve. On the other side of the ball, Ndamukong Suh has moved on to Los Angeles, leaving a gaping hold on the defensive line.

Below is the full list of our how our model compares to actual Week 1 betting lines.

Top Photo: Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton (14) talks with Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (right)

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