Bill Simmons’ NFL Betting Theory: Does Cold Weather Impact Playoff Over/Unders?


David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady

Jan 20, 2019, 12:07 PM EST
  • Bill Simmons has an NFL betting theory: Cold weather impacts scoring and playoff over/unders.
  • Using our Bet Labs software, we tested Simmons’ theory to determine if his hunch is correct.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before … Bill Simmons has an NFL betting theory. On the latest episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, “The Sports Guy” and the guru of gambling, Cousin Sal, discussed the cold weather expected for Sunday’s AFC Championship game (6:40 p.m. ET, CBS).

Cousin Sal: “The weather means nothing, the points will come. I spent an hour and half looking for articles on this, how cold weather affects points. It really doesn’t, in some cases there are more points scored in the cold.”

Simmons: “So, this is an old wives’ tale, the weather does not affect the points. This sounds like a good challenge for our guy at The Action Network, John Ewing. If it’s under 20 degrees, I want to know how that affects the point total of playoff games.”

Challenge accepted.

Using our Bet Labs database, here is how NFL overs have performed based on the average temperature in all games since 2003: