Bills vs. Patriots Sharp Pick: How Pros Are Betting This Over/Under

Bills vs. Patriots Sharp Pick: How Pros Are Betting This Over/Under article feature image
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Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Buffalo Bills safety Jordan Poyer (21) is congratulated

  • Late sharp money is moving on the over/under for Saturday's Bills vs. Patriots matchup.
  • We outline how pros are betting the AFC East total and how it's moving the line.

The first Saturday NFL slate of the season includes just three games, but professionals are getting as much as they can from each of these matchups.

In fact, The Action Network’s Mark Gallant previously reported how smart money was already hitting each of today’s games, including the Bills vs. Patriots spread.

Apparently three bets across three games wasn’t enough for the wiseguys, because late sharp action has hit the total in Foxborough as well.


Odds as of Sunday at 10:30 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.


Let’s look at how late money is moving the Bills vs. Patriots over/under.

Bills vs. Patriots Sharp Betting Over/Under Pick

Considering the Patriots and Bills rank first and fourth, respectively, in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, it’s not all surprising to see this total open at 38.5.

And while comparing the opener to the current number of 37.5 appears to tell the complete story, the full line history is required to diagnose how sharps are betting this total.

Early action drove this over/under down to 36.5 as recently as Wednesday, before it ticked up to 37 as of this morning.

Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, which track and report professional betting action in real-time, reported another wave of smart money hitting the over less than 30 minutes ago, explaining why the market consensus now sits at 37.5.

This is a prime example of how winning bettors focus strictly on numbers. At the opener, the over was not a viable play. But once the market depressed it to 37, the over then became playable.

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 37 to 37.5)

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