Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets Odds, Pick: How Sharps Are Betting Thursday Night Football

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Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Darnold #14 of the New York Jets

Broncos vs. Jets Betting Odds

Broncos Odds +1.5
Jets Odds -1.5
Over/Under 40.5
Time/Channel  8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network

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A matchup of the winless Denver Broncos and the also-winless New York Jets certainly isn’t the most exciting game for fans and recreational bettors on the Week 4 slate, but from a market perspective, it’s fascinating.

On Tuesday, the Broncos announced that second-year quarterback Brett Rypien would get the start in place of Jeff Driskel.

This obviously had an effect on Jets-Broncos odds for Thursday Night Football, but in no way explains the massive line movement we’ve seen throughout the week.

Using our NFL PRO Report, let’s examine what’s behind the drastic Jets vs. Broncos odds movement.

Broncos vs. Jets Betting Pick


Data as of 7:30 a.m. ET. For immediate access to our NFL PRO Report for every Week 4 game, start a Free Trial today! You’ll also get:

  • Pro Betting Systems: historically profitable betting trends and angles built on millions of data points.
  • Line Move Predictions: know when a line will move — before it happens.
  • Custom Fantasy Football Rankings from Sean Koerner (Top FantasyPros ranker).

Sharp Action

As mentioned above, the market adjusted from Rypien taking over under center earlier this week, but that’s certainly not enough to explain the move from Jets +3 to -1.5 that we’ve seen at a handful of sportsbooks, including BetMGM and FanDuel.

The real reason? Because after a small tweak to account for Denver’s new quarterback situations, sharps have consistently pounded the Jets since Tuesday.

Sports Insights’ Bet Signals have triggered a whopping nine smart money indicators on New York, including one at 6:34 a.m. ET today at Jets -1, showing that bettors with the respect and resources to move the entire market still found value in that line just a few hours ago.

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Big Money

With sharp action often comes big bucks, and that’s exactly what our NFL public betting data is tracking for Thursday Night Football.

Fifty-nine percent of spread bets are on Denver, yet 67% of the real money wagered is on New York.

How can just 41% of the tickets represent 67% of actual dollars? When those 41% of bets are larger in size than the 58% on the other side — and that’s exactly what’s occurring tonight.

PRO Report Angle: Jets (-1.5)

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