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Bills-Ravens Betting Preview: Public Bettors Hammering the Under

Sep 07, 2018 4:00 AM EDT

Betting odds: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

  • Spread: Ravens -7.5
  • Over/Under: 40.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.


Betting market: A crazy 82% of bets are on the under as of writing (see live data here).

If that holds, it would mark just the sixth time we’ve ever tracked an under with that level of public backing — and we’ve seen only 30 games since 2003 where an under has even received 70% of bets. — Mark Gallant

Injury watch: Buffalo’s starters are almost completely healthy, and RB LeSean McCoy (legal) will also play after not being placed on the commissioner’s exempt list.

The Ravens aren’t so lucky, as they’ll likely be without rookie tight end Hayden Hurst (foot) in addition to stud cornerback Jimmy Smith, who will serve the first game of his four-game suspension. Ian Hartitz

Did you know? This will mark John Harbaugh’s 11th season in Baltimore. The Ravens continue to take the preseason seriously, having won 13 games straight.

That approach seems to pay off in Week 1, as the Ravens are 8-2 straight-up (7-3 ATS) in home openers under Harbaugh.

Add in the fact that the Ravens are 8-2 ATS after a bye under Harbaugh, and that means he is a spectacular 15-5 ATS (75%) with extra prep (bye or offseason) during his tenure in Baltimore.

In all other games, he is a subpar 62-70-8 ATS (47%). Stuckey

Weather report: Mother Nature isn’t making anything easier on Nathan Peterman (38.4 QB rating) or Joe Flacco (80.4 QB rating).

Though the rain forecasted earlier this week no longer looks like it will be an issue, the winds between 12-15 miles per hour will definitely boost those interception chances. Gallant

DFS edge: The Bills’ offense is a complete disaster, but McCoy could be in play as a volume-based leverage option for tournaments.

With limited weapons in the passing game and at the goal line, McCoy could be a reasonable pivot off of more popular options in his price range, like Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey, with a similar workload expectation.

Rostering any Bills player as a +7.5 road dog is not ideal, but it’s notable that Baltimore tied for the sixth-most rushing touchdowns allowed in 2017.

No running back owns a higher DraftKings leverage score in FantasyLabs’ Models than McCoy in Week 1. Joe Holka

Trend to know: The Ravens are one of three teams this week to see the point spread move in their favor by at least one point.

It’s Week 1, so let’s get a little crazy: Over the past five seasons, home teams that didn’t make the playoffs the year before but saw the spread move in their favor at least one point are 21-38 against the spread (-17.8 units) when facing a playoff team from the year before. Evan Abrams

Bet to watch: I actually project the Bills as the worst team in the NFL. Their offensive line is going to be especially horrid. I really like their safeties, but that’s about it.

It’s either Baltimore or nothing in my opinion here. Stuckey


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Rod Streater

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