Bills-Patriots Betting Preview: Pats Don’t Lose 3 in a Row, But Will They Cover?

Dec 23, 2018 04:45 AM EST

Bill Pavely, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady

Betting odds: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

  • Spread: Patriots -13.5
  • Over/Under: 44.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: As you’d expect, most bettors are backing New England despite the big spread. At the time of writing 63% of bets are on the Pats, though 53% of the money is on Buffalo. This could be a classic sharps vs. squares game.

The over/under has dropped a point, despite 57% of the tickets and money coming in on the over (see live betting data here). — PJ Walsh

Trends to Know: New England has lost back-to-back games for the second time this season. Since 2001, when Tom Brady became the full-time starter, the Patriots are 8-3 against the spread when on a losing streak of at least two games. The Pats haven’t lost three consecutive games since 2002. — John Ewing

The Patriots scored just 10 points against the Steelers in Week 15. It was the third time this season New England has scored 10 points in a game.

Since 2003, when Brady and the Patriots score 10 points or fewer in their previous game, the Pats are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS, covering the spread by 11.6 PPG, per our Bet Labs data. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Patriots lost their stranglehold on the AFC’s No. 2 seed last week after losing to the Steelers. Houston is now in the driver’s seat, but the Texans have a tough matchup at Philly looming.

If Houston loses and the Patriots win as big favorites, New England will again move back into the No. 2 seed, thanks to its Week 1 win over the Texans. — Scott T. Miller


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