Chargers-Chiefs Betting Odds: Over/Under Plummeting in Early Week 15 Betting

Dec 11, 2018 09:47 AM EST
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David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andy Reid

  • The Chargers and Chiefs face off on Thursday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET, FOX/NFL Network) in a key AFC West showdown.
  • The over/under opened at 56.5, but has fallen to 53.5 within a 16-hour window.
  • Sharp action is one reason why, in addition to an early forecast that calls for wind and possibly rain at Arrowhead Stadium.

A Thursday Night Football game for the ages takes place in Week 15, with the 10-3 Chargers heading to Kansas City to take on the 11-2 Chiefs.

A win for Kansas City would lock up the AFC West, while a win for the Chargers would open the door for a surprising dethroning of the once juggernaut-esque Chiefs.

The Chiefs are currently at a heavily-juiced -3 around the market, suggesting the game would be right around a pick’em at a neutral location.

Not much has happened to the spread in terms of line movement, but the over/under is another story.

Opening at 56.5, oddsmakers expected these two potent offenses to “go off” at Arrowhead. Sharp bettors weren’t quite on the same page, though.

According to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, steam on the under has helped push this total down to 53.5, with some books even posting 53.

Per Bet Labs, late season divisional games have tended to go under, especially in games with high totals. Perhaps folks are picking up on this trend.

In games played from Week 8 through the end of the season, unders have hit at over a 60% rate in divisional matchups with totals of 45 or higher.

The weather is also factoring into the equation, as early forecasts are rather miserable. Though not exactly wintry, fans and players alike will be cold and wet. In fact, I imagine folks would prefer snow to freezing rain.

The temperature is projected to be in the upper 30s with winds averaging 16 mph. This forecast is still a few days out and could certainly change, though. In fact, it’s already looking a little better than it was this morning, when winds were projected at 19 mph.

If we add winds of 10+ mph to that divisional under system above, the sample size drops from 325 to 45, but the under has gone 38-7, covering by almost 10 points on average …

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