Schwartz: My Chargers-Chiefs Prop Picks for Our $250 Contest

Dec 13, 2018 10:11 PM EST
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Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.

  • We're giving away $250 to the winner of our Chargers-Chiefs Thursday Night Football prop contest.
  • Geoff Schwartz gives his picks for the contest, which is 100% free for everyone to enter.

In case you’ve missed the news, we’re giving away $250 in cash to the winner of our Thursday Night Football props contest.

What’s the occasion? We’ve got a huge AFC West showdown — Chargers! Chiefs! — and giving away cash makes us happy.

Here are the details: I’ve come up with 10 questions centered around this awesome game, in which my brother, Mitchell Schwartz, will play a starring role.

Submit your entry into our free app by 8:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, and then follow along as we grade your predictions in real-time.

Answer the most props correctly and you’ll take home your share of the cash. That’s it: 100% free to enter and loads of prop-filled fun.

 

 

Here are Geoff’s leans on each of the 10 props … Good luck with your entry!

1. Will Patrick Mahomes complete his first pass attempt?

  • Yes
  • No

Andy Reid is one of the best designers of the first 15 plays, and he loves setting up quarterbacks for easy completions to start the game.

2. When will the first points be scored in the game?

  • 15:00-10:00 in 1Q
  • 9:59-5:00 in 1Q
  • 4:59-0:00 in 1Q
  • Other/None

The Chiefs and Chargers rank first and third in first-quarter scoring. I expect both teams to score early and often in this one.

3. Which team will use a timeout first?

  • Chiefs
  • Chargers

Arrowhead holds the record for loudest NFL stadium. The Chargers will have their hands full on third downs.

4. Will the Chiefs score a 1-yard touchdown?

  • Yes
  • No

Most often teams get the ball at the 1-yard line because of a defensive pass interference. The Chargers only have five DPIs on the season.

5. How many total receptions will Travis Kelce have?

  • 5 or less
  • 6 or 7
  • 8 or 9
  • 10 or more

With Spencer Ware, Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins all hurting, Kelce will be a huge target for Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have allowed 57 completions on 73 pass attempts to the tight end, leading the NFL with 12 pass deflections on passes targeting this position.

6. What will be the total distance of the longest made field goal?

  • Less than 40 yds
  • 40-44 yds
  • 45-49 yds
  • 50-54 yds
  • 55+ yds

There’s expected to a light rain and 15 mph crosswinds at kickoff. The Chargers are 8-of-11 on FG attempts 40-49 yards. The Chiefs meanwhile are 6-of-7 in the same range.

7. How many total sacks will the Chiefs allow vs. Chargers?

  • None
  • 1-2
  • 3-4
  • 5 or more

The Chiefs’ offensive line has allowed only 23 sacks in 13 games, while the Chargers rank 25th in adjusted sack rate on defense.

8. Will Patrick Mahomes throw for more passing yards than Philip Rivers?

  • Yes
  • No

The team that’s behind late in this game will be throwing it to catch up. The Chiefs have beaten the Chargers nine times in a row by an average margin of 12 points. All that adds up to Rivers.

9. How many total false start and offensive holding penalties will the Chiefs have?

  • None
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4 or more

The Chiefs have the most penalties in the league but not many upfront — 17 holdings and only 10 false starts by the offensive line. However, the Chargers have an outstanding pass rush, which should cause at least a few flags on KC’s O-line.

10. Will the Chiefs score a touchdown on a drive where they allow a sack?

  • Yes
  • No

With Pat Mahomes anything is possible. A holding penalty would cripple most offenses, but not the Chiefs.

Tiebreaker: How many total rushing yards will the Chiefs have?

The Chargers are 16th in rushing defense DVOA, but the Chiefs could be down their two starting running backs. I will guess 76 total rushing yards for Kansas City.

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