Best Chargers-Chiefs TNF Props: Keenan Allen Over/Under 6.5 Receptions?
- There are two player props offering betting value in the Thursday Night Football matchup featuring the Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs.
- Using our FantasyLabs player props tool, we analyze how to bet props involving Chargers WRs Tyrell Williams and Keenan Allen.
There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in Chargers-Chiefs, which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on Fox/NFL Network.
Our public betting data will be used in this data-driven analysis of props, as will our player prop tool at FantasyLabs, which takes each prop listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverages them against our player projections from Sean Koerner — the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.
*All odds as of 12 p.m. ET on Thursday
Chargers WR Tyrell Williams
The Pick: Over 35.5 receiving yards (-105)
Williams hasn’t cleared 47 receiving yards over his past five healthy starts. But with Melvin Gordon (knee) expected to be out and Austin Ekeler (neck/concussion) already ruled out, Williams is now second on the team in target share over the past six weeks.
The Chargers will likely need to throw to keep up with the Chiefs, who have the second-highest scoring rate in the league. The Chiefs have also allowed the fifth-most completions on downfield passes (15-plus yards) and Williams has been targeted downfield 17 times this season, averaging 36.3 yards per receptions on such passes, per Sports Info Solutions.
Williams’ projected receiving yards (46.8) in our FantasyLabs Player Prop Tool compared to his implied total is the biggest discrepancy of all props.
Chargers WR Keenan Allen
The Pick: Over 6.5 receptions (-114)
There isn’t much depth needed on this because 6.5 receptions seems somewhat low for a receiver who is garnering 34.5% of a team’s target share and averaging 7.83 receptions per game over the past six weeks — especially considering they’re facing a team that piles up points rapidly, likely forcing the Chargers into a pass-heavy game script.
Allen’s 34.5% target share and 47 receptions since Week 9 doesn’t only lead the Chargers, but it leads the entire league.