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Early Sharp Action Hitting Chargers-Patriots Over/Under

Jan 07, 2019 2:34 PM EST
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Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady.

  • The Chargers-Patriots game (1:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS) has already attracted large bets that have caused the over/under to drop.
  • The over is getting 50% of bets, but the under is seeing 70% of the money.
  • Though it certainly may change, the early weather forecast is calling for snow in Foxborough on Sunday.

The Chargers held on to the win in Baltimore and have won the chance to play the Patriots in Foxborough this Sunday. That always goes well for teams, right?

It probably won’t be a fun time for them, but I’m not here to talk about the spread — although I will point out that Philip Rivers is 0-7 straight up and 1-6 against the spread vs. Tom Brady in his career.

As the headline implies, I’m here to talk about the over/under.

Yesterday evening, during the Chargers-Ravens game, oddsmakers began posting lines for Chargers-Patriots.

The total opened at 47.5, which is nearly 10 points lower than the other AFC game next week, but a good chunk higher than the Chargers game yesterday.

Early money hit the under, though, dropping it a full point at some books down to 46.5.

Though 50% of the bets are on the over, 70% of the money is on the under. Bigger bets generally equal sharper bettors, who are responsible for most line moves you’ll see.

Early Monday evening, Sports Insights’ bet signals also tracked a steam move on the under, further dropping the number down to 45 in some spots.

Why are they hitting the under hard in the early going, though? I can’t say for sure, but there is a chance they are gambling on the forecast. Literally and figuratively.

Snow forecasts six days out are not exactly accurate, but they often give folks at least an estimated guess on what will happen.

If that holds up, bettors will get some excellent closing line value, as the total would surely drop a few more points if there was significant snow expected during the game.

If it doesn’t hold up, it may go back up a bit more, but not a ton. I imagine it’ll definitely stay below 50 regardless of the forecast, but has a chance to drop well below 45 if there’s a snowstorm.

Be sure to download The Action Network app to track how this over/under moves in real-time throughout the week.

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