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Bears-Packers Betting Preview: Do You Dare Fade Aaron Rodgers at Home?

Sep 09, 2018 12:00 AM EDT

Betting odds: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

  • Spread: Packers -7
  • Over/Under: 46
  • Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: NBC

>> All odds as of Sunday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.


Betting market: At the time of writing, 66% of spread tickets are on Green Bay, yet 54% of actual dollars wagered are taking Chicago and the points (see live data here).

The Bears are a trendy team, especially since acquiring Khalil Mack, so don’t be surprised to see Chicago money flow in if this pops above the key number of 7 again. — PJ Walsh


Trends to know: Since Aaron Rodgers’ first start in 2008, no QB has been more profitable against divisional opponents (35-18 against the spread vs. the NFC North, +15.6 units).

In fact, the next-closest QB has profited bettors almost five units fewer than Rodgers in almost 40 fewer division starts (Brian Hoyer, 12-1-1 ATS). — Evan Abrams

In the past 10 years, Rodgers is a ridiculous 41-18-3 ATS at home (70%).John Ewing

Injury watch: Offseason addition tight end Trey Burton is poised for a massive role considering the Bears placed backup tight end Adam Shaheen (foot) on IR.

Chicago is healthy otherwise, and the Packers aren’t in a bad position, either.

The only projected starter who could miss the game appears to be linebacker Oren Burks (shoulder), who is the new man in the middle with Jake Ryan (knee, IR) sidelined.

Running back Jamaal Williams is expected to work as the Packers’ featured back as Aaron Jones serves a two-game suspension. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: You know the name Khalil Mack — and rightfully so. The Bears added one of the best defenders in the league just in time for the season, and he’ll be a difference-maker when he’s on the field against Green Bay.

Do you know the name Adrian Amos? You should. He’s one of the best safeties in the game and was the Bears’ highest-graded player last season, according to PFF.

I like Amos to limit tight end Jimmy Graham in this matchup.

Rodgers will always get his, but with Amos and a solid cornerback group that matches up well against Green Bay, the Bears’ defense can keep this within reach.

I also like Chicago’s matchups in the passing game against one of the youngest secondaries in the NFL. There’s a reason the Packers used first- and second-round picks on cornerbacks: They need reinforcements after ranking 27th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric vs. the pass (29th vs. running backs and 32nd vs. No. 1 wide receivers).

Expect the Bears to take full advantage with wide receiver Allen Robinson and running back Tarik Cohen.

I bet Chicago at +7.5 and will gladly take anything at 7 or above. Stuckey


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers

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