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Chiefs-Patriots: Betting Odds, Line Movement, and Profitable Trends

Oct 09, 2018 3:50 PM EDT
  • The Kansas City Chiefs-New England Patriots Sunday Night Football game (8:20 p.m. ET) will likely end up as the most heavily bet game of Week 6.
  • Using The Action Network's live betting data and tools, we analyze a handful of important factors heading into this key matchup.

We have ourselves a game on Sunday Night Football! Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs head to Foxborough to play the Patriots in arguably the most anticipated game so far this season.

Even though this game will be an excellent watch for casual fans and non-bettors, it does not lack in the betting department in the least bit.

Here are a few things bettors should know:

Line Movement

This line is surely set to get a ton of betting action over the next several days. The Patriots opened as 3-point favorites at BookMaker and bounced between -3 and -3.5 a couple of times over the first 12 hours of betting.

The line has remained pretty calm at -3.5 over the past day, but I expect there will be some more flip-flopping throughout the week.

It’s tough not to bet the Patriots -3 at home. With Tom Brady at quarterback the Patriots are 9-2-2 against the spread (ATS) in home games with a spread of -3 or worse, and 5-0-1 over the past decade, according to Bet Labs.

The Chiefs are also getting the majority of bets, which is another spot Brady has thrived in. Since 2003, he’s gone 19-6-2 ATS when getting fewer than 50% of bets.

Meanwhile, bettors are clearly having trouble fading the Chiefs, especially if they can get +3.5.

Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 straight up and against the spread this season, and its recent dismantling of the Jaguars — a team that destroyed the Pats — further proves that they’re the real deal.

Record-setting Over/under

Fifty-nine. The over/under is 59. Pretty darned high for an NFL game. Since 2003, there has been one regular season game with a higher total than 59, which was way back in 2004.

Two postseason games have had totals of 59.5 in that span, with the most recent being the Packers-Falcons NFC Championship Game in 2017. This would be the first game in our database to land on exactly 59 if it holds up, but the betting activity so far suggests that it might go even higher.

The over has received 74% of bets and 81% of dollars, which has helped move the total from 57.5 to 59. Can we see a record breaker?

Super Bowl 53 Favorites

As it currently stands, the Pats and Chiefs are co-favorites in the AFC to win the Super Bowl. Both have +600 odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, trailing only the Rams (+175).

The winner of this game will surely emerge as the lone favorite from the AFC and my gut tells me that the Chiefs have more to gain, but less to lose.

If they can beat the Patriots on the road, they will have defeated the Steelers, Jaguars and Patriots, proving that essentially nobody from the AFC can stop them.

If they lose, oh well. No biggie. Their odds would probably drop a little, but perhaps not as much as New England’s odds would if the Patriots can’t defend their home field.

Stay posted throughout the week and follow @ActionNetworkHQ for more news on this game and the rest of the Week 6 slate.

Credit:

Sep 7, 2017; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid hug after a game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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OPEN
CURR
# BETS
-3
45
-2.5
43.5
41
-9.5
40.5
-7
59
-14.5
60
-13
-9.5
47
-9.5
46.5
43.5
-11
43
-11
46.5
-7
46
-6
54
-3
54.5
-3
48
-3
47.5
-3
47
-3
47.5
-3
-3
38
-3
37
44
-13
45
-12
51
-10
51
-7.5
-3.5
47.5
-3
47
48.5
-4.5
48
-3
43
-5.5
43
-5.5