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Koerner: My Chiefs-Seahawks Prop Picks for Our $250 Contest

Dec 23, 2018 11:45 AM EST
Credit:

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

  • We're giving away $250 to the winner of our Chiefs-Seahawks Sunday Night Football prop contest.
  • Sean Koerner, who helped come up with some of the questions for our prop sheet, gives his picks.

In case you’ve missed the news, we’re giving away $250 in cash to the winner of our Sunday Night Football props contest.

What’s the occasion? We’ve got a nice matchup — Chiefs! Seahawks! — and giving away cash makes us happy.

Here are the details: We’ve come up with 10 questions centered around Chiefs-Seahawks. Submit your entry into our free app by 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday, and then follow along as we grade your predictions in real-time.

Answer the most props correctly and you’ll take home your share of the cash. That’s it: 100% free to enter and loads of prop-filled fun.

 

I helped come up with some of the props, but also wanted to give you my leans for each.

Good luck with your entry!

1. Will the jersey number of the first TD scorer be over/under 31.5?

  • Over
  • Under
  • No TD scored

If you know me at all, you know I spent the appropriate time to figure out the true 50/50 line for this prop. There is a slight edge to the over here. Most of the defensive players on both teams have a jersey number over 32, so you will likely hit if the first score if a defensive TD.

On the offensive side of the ball, Chris Carson and Spencer Ware are both No. 32, all TEs in this game including Travis Kelce No. 87 would be over, and Doug Baldwin, David Moore and Kelvin Benjamin are the WRs that would make the over hit.

The under is essentially all other players and includes both QBs, Tyreek Hill, and Tyler Lockett to name a few.

Damien Williams is No. 26 so if Spencer Ware is unable to play it would actually shift the slight edge on the under. Either way, I felt this would be a fun unique prop for all of us degens to be sweating over to start the game.

2. Will the longest TD scored be over/under 44.5 yards?

  • Over
  • Under

This is a fairly high number compared to an average matchup. With Tyler Lockett and Tyreek Hill facing each other, I think the slight value is on the over here.

Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson

3. Will there be a score in the final 2 minutes of the first half?

  • Yes
  • No

Both offenses are capable of driving down the field quickly in order to set up a FG to close out the half.

I’m going to take yes here and just hope that a team is already across midfield at the 2-minute warning to make this prop a near lock.

4. Will Justin Houston (KC) record a sack?

  • Yes
  • No

Justin Houston has recorded a sack in five of his 10 games played this year.

I think the case for yes here is that Seattle has allowed the 10th most sacks this year with 42 and that Houston has been playing 90%+ of the snaps down the stretch after only playing between 75-85% when healthy earlier in the season.

5. Will Sebastian Janikowski miss a FG or XP in the game?

  • Yes
  • No

Sea Bass has only missed a kick in five of his 14 games this year. The smart bet here is no.

However, the key to winning first in this contest is to take smart gambles in certain spots to gain leverage. I think up until this question my picks have been pretty chalky.

With the increased scoring environment in this game, Janikowski is likely to see more attempts than normal, increasing his chances of a miss. Taking yes here can be a gamble worth taking if you think 70% of people will be on no.

6. Which WR will make the first reception for the Seahawks in the fourth quarter?

  • Tyler Lockett
  • Doug Baldwin
  • David Moore
  • Jaron Brown
  • Other/None

The favorite on this prop is Doug Baldwin, with Tyler Lockett not too far behind. I think this is a great prop to go against the chalk on but Jaron Brown and Other/None seem like too much of a reach. A great pivot play here would be to take David Moore who’s pick percentage will likely be lower than his actual chances of being the correct pick.

7. How many passing yards will Patrick Mahomes throw for?

  • Less than 260
  • 261-305
  • 306-349
  • 350 or more

The higher ranges here will certainly be more popular so if you trust me in saying that I feel like I made each bucket a 25% chance of happening I think going with either low-end bucket is the leverage play here.

I may go with the 261-305 range as I could see something like only 10-15% people going with that, giving myself a theoretical 10-15% edge on this prop.

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, running back Anthony Sherman (42) and quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15). Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

8. How many passing TDs will Russell Wilson have?

  • 0 or 1
  • 2
  • 3 or more

I think 2 exactly is most likely outcome and going to be the most popular selection.

People that check his game log will see that he has thrown for 3+ in six of his 14 games this season. With the elevated scoring environment, that could be a popular selection as well. One or less is a great leverage play.

If you have gone with the most popular or obvious pick up until now it may be a good time to take a smart gamble.

Wilson has thrown for a career high 8.2% pass TD per attempt this year signaling he is likely going to regress closer to his career rate of 6% going forward. He has only thrown for one or less TDs this year twice this year, but his chances of doing so is much more likely going forward.

9. How many rushing yards will Chris Carson have?

  • 49 or less
  • 50-74
  • 75-99
  • 100 or more

I’m going to leave this prop up to Rashaad Penny’s availability. If Penny is active, I’ll go with 50-74; if Penny is inactive, I’ll go with 75-99.

10. Will Tyreek Hill have more total scrimmage yards (rush + rec) than Travis Kelce?

  • Yes
  • No

I had to include rushing yards in this prop to make this a bit closer to 50/50. I’m going to lean on Kelce on this one, as he likely has a higher median than Hill.

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@The_Oddsmaker

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