Chiefs vs. Patriots Picks: How Our Experts Are Betting This Spread
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady
- Our experts reveal how they're betting the Week 14 NFL matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots.
- Find Sean Koerner's and Stuckey's spread picks below, as well as one of the top player prop bets of Week 14.
Chiefs at Patriots Betting Picks
- Odds: Patriots -3
- Over/Under: 49
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Sunday and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Spread tickets are almost evenly split between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots for this Sunday’s AFC Championship Game rematch.
Our experts reveal who they’re betting to cover the 3-point line, complete with two picks.
Stuckey: Patriots -3
A 23-3 record against the spread.
Think about that for a minute. That’s almost a 90% clip.
That’s Tom Brady’s ATS record after a straight-up loss as either an underdog (9-0) or favorite of fewer than seven points (14-3) since 2003, the entirety of our Bet Labs database. That’s higher than a 75% return on investment, and maybe most amazingly of all: He’s covered against the closing number by an average margin of more than eight points per game over that span.
I’m not a huge trend player, but this is a spot that Bill Belichick and Brady consistently cover in, especially at Gillette, where they’re dominant ATS:
- When Brady and Edelman both play, the Patriots are 43-0 at home against AFC opponents
- The Patriots are 99-1 at home when they have a halftime lead with Brady starting (interestingly enough, the one loss came against the Chiefs a couple years ago to open the season when Alex Smith was under center)
I’ve successfully faded the Patriots over the past few weeks, primarily because of their offense, which remains broken. And while I do expect it to get better as the season progresses, it’s still a work in progress with all the moving parts they’ve had to deal with along the line and especially at receiver and tight end.
That said, I do think the Patriots offense can have success running the ball against a Chiefs defense that remains one of the NFL’s worst against the run. Brady should also have success throwing to his backs (expect a big game from James White game) and tight ends — two positions the Chiefs struggle to defend. And while Kansas City’s secondary has performed surprisingly well, especially against limiting deep passes, that’s not a part of the New England offense right now.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, are not the well-oiled offensive machine we saw in 2018.
They’re still very good, but I’m not sure Patriots Mahomes is 100%, and more importantly, they’re really struggling to run the ball due to a lack of push up front. That means their production falls mainly on the shoulders of Mahomes and his weapons in the passing game. Of course that’s not the worst situation against most teams, but it plays right into the Patriots’ strength: Their secondary.
Belichick and Co. made key adjustments for the second meeting between these teams last season, putting the speedy J.C. Jackson on Tyreek Hill with safety help over top to take away the deep threat of Hill, helping them win the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead. (Hill shredded the Patriots for three touchdowns in the regular-season meeting.) The Patriots can then utilize Stephon Gilmore on Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins when necessary.
Now, the one wild card is the added speed of Mecole Hardman. But with the Chiefs’ run game struggling, the Patriots should come up with a good enough scheme with their excellent secondary to slow down Mahomes enough to pull this game out.
I’m trusting the situational spot and key matchups here. The Patriots just always find a way to win.
Stuckey is 296-234-7 (55.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
John Ewing: Patriots -3
The Patriots are 10-2 and have outscored their opponents by 177 points — the best point differential in football. It’s weird to say it, but despite their success this season, Bill Belichick and Co. have actually underperformed based on Pythagorean expectations.
According to Pythagorean expectations, the Pats should have 10.4 wins. That 0.4-win difference between expected and actual wins isn’t much, but it does point to value on Brady and Belichick.
Historically, winning teams that have underperformed their points expectations have been good bets late in the season.
A $100 bettor following this strategy would have returned a profit of $2,952 since 2003.
This is not the only historical data on the side of the Patriots this week. After a dismal performance on Sunday Night Football, gamblers should expect New England to bounce back. Since 2003, Brady has gone 35-13 (73%) ATS after a loss.
Our Bet Labs simulations also like New England in this matchup making the Patriots 3.5-point favorites. All signs point to value on the Pats at the key number of 3.
I like the Patriots at anything -3 or better.
Ewing is 313-285-16 (52.3%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.